Meteorology... Hurricanes and the like

[old_pop2000]

Well, unless you have been on a desert lsland, you have heard about Hurricane Gustav. It is now a Cat 3 Hurricane as of the 1300 CST advisory with winds gusting to 120 MPH. I've been monitoring the Gulf of Mexico sea temperature buoys and he is heading over 83-87 degree water. Warm water is like manna from heaven for hurricanes, they intensify when they arrive over it. I suspect he will upgrade to Cat 4 possibly Cat 5. Normal low pressure systems and jet streams can also greatly affect their path. This is why the National Hurricane Center provides a 5 day and 3 day cone of affected areas.

For hurricanes, the NE quadrant is always the worst spot. The outer heavy rain bands are about 193 miles from New Orleans, with some cloudiness already hitting the area.

Thanks

[Ed Rotondaro]

Well, unless you have been on a desert lsland, you have heard about Hurricane Gustav. It is now a Cat 3 Hurricane as of the 1300 CST advisory with winds gusting to 120 MPH. I've been monitoring the Gulf of Mexico sea temperature buoys and he is heading over 83-87 degree water. Warm water is like manna from heaven for hurricanes, they intensify when they arrive over it. I suspect he will upgrade to Cat 4 possibly Cat 5. Normal low pressure systems and jet streams can also greatly affect their path. This is why the National Hurricane Center provides a 5 day and 3 day cone of affected areas.

For hurricanes, the NE quadrant is always the worst spot. The outer heavy rain bands are about 193 miles from New Orleans, with some cloudiness already hitting the area.

Thanks

Dennis:

It may have reached Cat 5 at the time of writing. God help the Gulf Coast.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

It may have reached Cat 5 at the time of writing. God help the Gulf Coast.

Hi Ed:

I monitored it until late last night, he is off to the west and it weakened to a cat 3 with 120 sustained, gusts to 140. However, as he rolls forward, it will drop to 105-110. However, that is a very dangerous storm and the worst flooding due to many feet of rain is going to get worse.

The pressure in the eye has dropped 957 from 952, so he strengthened a little but again, the NE quadrant is the worst.

Hope all monitor emergency radio frequencies and watch for high water in the next 6 to 12 hours.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Hi Ed:

I monitored it until late last night, he is off to the west and it weakened to a cat 3 with 120 sustained, gusts to 140. However, as he rolls forward, it will drop to 105-110. However, that is a very dangerous storm and the worst flooding due to many feet of rain is going to get worse.

The pressure in the eye has dropped 957 from 952, so he strengthened a little but again, the NE quadrant is the worst.

Hope all monitor emergency radio frequencies and watch for high water in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Dennis:

Poor New Orleans, they still haven't fully recovered yet.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

Poor New Orleans, they still haven't fully recovered yet.

The City of New Orleans, the State, the Feds and especially the Army Corp of Engineers have always known about this problem and the dangers of a decade of bad storms. There have been studies from NOAA and almost all Federal and private scientific groups that have predicted or at least warned of the deteriorating situation with the storms in the central Atlantic. I feel very bad for the people who are poor and could not move. However, they were failed by all the agencies.

This is not ranting, it is a fact. I have been reading some of the reports that go back over 20 years, and most agreed that the Gulf Coast was living on borrowed time. I left Keesler AFB, in June of 1969, about a month before Camille hit and simply leveled everything. That was forty years ago, so everyone has known about the problems.

[old_pop2000]

Well, out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Floridians and East coasters. Gustav is gone, but Hannah, Ike, and Josephine are lined up like a group of chorus girls out in the Atlantic. All are TS, not Hurricanes, but give'm time to get to open, hot water and watch the fun.

For those of you in the west, there is Karina off of the tip of Baja at a mere 40knts of wind. She is headed WNW at 8 knots.

Thank you, global warming. It sure is great to live in SoCal with 5 knot winds, no rain and 91 degree temperatures. :D

[keschofield]

... Thank you, global warming. ...

Careful Dennis, you'll lose your conservative's club membership badge. The right says that "global warming" only exists in Al Gore's imagination. :rolleyes:

I know, I know, no politics. I just couldn't resist. :D

I'll behave now.

[Scott Chisholm]

You know, I've heard it said that this summer it will be warmer than it has been all year long. Who would've thought? :p

[keschofield]

You know, I've heard it said that this summer it will be warmer than it has been all year long. Who would've thought? :p

Very droll, very droll sir!:D

[Ed Rotondaro]

You know, I've heard it said that this summer it will be warmer than it has been all year long. Who would've thought? :p

Scott:

We certainly didn't have a warm summer in the Northeast. What we had was one of the wettest summers on record. When it wasn't raining, it mild with moderate humidity. I think I used the home AC maybe three times all summer.

[Campy]

Three tropical storms running now. Some of the worst hurricanes in this country happened in September. Galveston, the 1928 Okechobee storm, the 1935 Florida Keys storm, and the 1938 "New England Express".

Frank

[old_pop2000]

Careful Dennis, you'll lose your conservative's club membership badge. The right says that "global warming" only exists in Al Gore's imagination. :rolleyes:

I know, I know, no politics. I just couldn't resist. :D

I'll behave now.


You're assuming I have one. I don't. There is global warming, however, there is not enough evidence that it isn't normal since this is an interglacial period. It always warms up in an interglacial period. That does not mean we haven't accelerated it or changed the mean temperature. However, why not stop polluting just because its good for us, forget global warming.

Okee dokee!!

[old_pop2000]

Three tropical storms running now. Some of the worst hurricanes in this country happened in September. Galveston, the 1928 Okechobee storm, the 1935 Florida Keys storm, and the 1938 "New England Express".

Frank

The August 17, 1969 Hurricane Camille, that wiped out everything on the Gulf Coast including the famous Edgewater Hotel on Hiway 90. Wind speeds up to 190 mph, pressure at 909 MB compared to Gustav's 957 mb, storm surge at 22-25 feet above the mean tide levels.

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm

Photo's of the devastation- My buddy was still at the base and told me in a letter not to return to the area to see any of our old haunts, they were all gone. All my favorite bars, etc. wiped off of the map in one 200 mph gust of wind. The link says $4.2 billion dollars of damage in 1969 dollars. Holy Toledo!!

[old_pop2000]

Satellite Image of Gustav

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=18138

[Ed Rotondaro]

The August 17, 1969 Hurricane Camille, that wiped out everything on the Gulf Coast including the famous Edgewater Hotel on Hiway 90. Wind speeds up to 190 mph, pressure at 909 MB compared to Gustav's 957 mb, storm surge at 22-25 feet above the mean tide levels.

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm

Photo's of the devastation- My buddy was still at the base and told me in a letter not to return to the area to see any of our old haunts, they were all gone. All my favorite bars, etc. wiped off of the map in one 200 mph gust of wind. The link says $4.2 billion dollars of damage in 1969 dollars. Holy Toledo!!

Dennis:

Unbelievable devastation. Yet we still hear whining and moaning from residents of the area. Sure we all want to try and help, but if you keep building in a place were storms like this occur, you're just playing dice with fate.

[keschofield]

You're assuming I have one. I don't. There is global warming, however, there is not enough evidence that it isn't normal since this is an interglacial period. It always warms up in an interglacial period. That does not mean we haven't accelerated it or changed the mean temperature. However, why not stop polluting just because its good for us, forget global warming.

Okee dokee!!

Dennis,

If I have offended you, I apologize. I do not wish to offend anyone, but sometimes I do so without intending it.

Conservative positions on most things are usually accepted as gospel on most of these forums while any liberal intrusions are belittled. So when you mentioned "global warming" the incongruity of the source and the statement amused me. Again I apologize. My post was pointless and thoughtless.

Please accept my apology.

BTW - Your statement about pollution is impeccably logical and I agree with it 100%.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis,

If I have offended you, I apologize. I do not wish to offend anyone, but sometimes I do so without intending it.

Conservative positions on most things are usually accepted as gospel on most of these forums while any liberal intrusions are belittled. So when you mentioned "global warming" the incongruity of the source and the statement amused me. Again I apologize. My post was pointless and thoughtless.

Please accept my apology.

BTW - Your statement about pollution is impeccably logical and I agree with it 100%.

In the area of politics, I never get offended. No, worries, mate. We are just having fun here.

I believe that pollution control is not a right or left issue, it is a human issue. However, we need to depoliticize it. let's allow the scientist to examine the past climatological record and ensure that what is occurring isn't just a normal cyclical warming due to an interglacial period and/or an increase in the Sun's solar output. Climate changes, we know that from ice cores. During the warming and cooling, certain plant species die due to lack of adaptability and modification of their environment. Those plants are replaced by others. Same goes with animals. As their food sources die, they pass out of existance. Human's have not been on the earth long enough to recognize this kind of change for what it is. Fires around the earth have been with us for millions of years, nothing new here. Let's settle down, do what man can do to reduce his effect on climate and simply adapt to the changes. Simple and straight forward.

[Ed Rotondaro]

In the area of politics, I never get offended. No, worries, mate. We are just having fun here.

I believe that pollution control is not a right or left issue, it is a human issue. However, we need to depoliticize it. let's allow the scientist to examine the past climatological record and ensure that what is occurring isn't just a normal cyclical warming due to an interglacial period and/or an increase in the Sun's solar output. Climate changes, we know that from ice cores. During the warming and cooling, certain plant species die due to lack of adaptability and modification of their environment. Those plants are replaced by others. Same goes with animals. As their food sources die, they pass out of existance. Human's have not been on the earth long enough to recognize this kind of change for what it is. Fires around the earth have been with us for millions of years, nothing new here. Let's settle down, do what man can do to reduce his effect on climate and simply adapt to the changes. Simple and straight forward.

Dennis:

I'm in favor of protecting the enviroment just so my kids will have a world to grow up and live a healthy life. And the more we study climate, the more we realize that we need more study. It's just so complex.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

I'm in favor of protecting the enviroment just so my kids will have a world to grow up and live a healthy life. And the more we study climate, the more we realize that we need more study. It's just so complex.


The main problem with the issue of climate-over and above the lack of a true understanding of the mechanics of it- is that many emerging nations and third world nations want to become industrialized, but the accords like Kyoto hinder their growth. It's all well and good for the highly industrialized Western nations who have over 150 years head start, but how do we bring these far eastern, and African nations along and still manage the effects on the environment. We have the South American's adopting a slash and burn farming system which destroys the largest jungles and forest in the world. All this reduction of plant life, reduces the oxygen levels.

There are many levels of phenomenom at work here, not just man-made ones.

As the Greenland, northern and southern ice caps melt, they dump fresh water into the ocean, thereby reducing the salinity. This reduced salinity makes the water lighter, it does not sink, so the Atlantic Conveyor will stop. When this happens, then the Northern areas like Europe, Scandanavia, etc. get far colder. This occurred from 1300 to 1840 in a period termed the Little Ice Age.

We have the problem of a lack of understanding of El Nino and La Nina in the Southeastern Pacific. This phenomenon can cause droughts in the midwest and increases the intensity of the hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Everything we do on this earth, and everything that occurs naturally interacts with the atmosphere, so does the changes in solar insolation. Volcanoes in the Aleutians spew tons of ash and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. Three of them erupted explosively within three weeks. It was so bad, the flight routes throught Gulf of Alaska were cancelled.

Its hard to separate man-made problems from natural ones. finger pointing isn't going to fix it. We should spend less money on expensive hardware to blow ourselves up with and more into research on climate and the effects of industrialization.

Ok, time to get off the soap box.;)

[Ed Rotondaro]

The main problem with the issue of climate-over and above the lack of a true understanding of the mechanics of it- is that many emerging nations and third world nations want to become industrialized, but the accords like Kyoto hinder their growth. It's all well and good for the highly industrialized Western nations who have over 150 years head start, but how do we bring these far eastern, and African nations along and still manage the effects on the environment. We have the South American's adopting a slash and burn farming system which destroys the largest jungles and forest in the world. All this reduction of plant life, reduces the oxygen levels.

There are many levels of phenomenom at work here, not just man-made ones.

As the Greenland, northern and southern ice caps melt, they dump fresh water into the ocean, thereby reducing the salinity. This reduced salinity makes the water lighter, it does not sink, so the Atlantic Conveyor will stop. When this happens, then the Northern areas like Europe, Scandanavia, etc. get far colder. This occurred from 1300 to 1840 in a period termed the Little Ice Age.

We have the problem of a lack of understanding of El Nino and La Nina in the Southeastern Pacific. This phenomenon can cause droughts in the midwest and increases the intensity of the hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Everything we do on this earth, and everything that occurs naturally interacts with the atmosphere, so does the changes in solar insolation. Volcanoes in the Aleutians spew tons of ash and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. Three of them erupted explosively within three weeks. It was so bad, the flight routes throught Gulf of Alaska were cancelled.

Its hard to separate man-made problems from natural ones. finger pointing isn't going to fix it. We should spend less money on expensive hardware to blow ourselves up with and more into research on climate and the effects of industrialization.

Ok, time to get off the soap box.;)


Dennis:

We've seen the effects of Third World irresponsible industrialization and deforestation. But most of those countries are be difficult to convince to adopt smarter ways of developing.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

We've seen the effects of Third World irresponsible industrialization and deforestation. But most of those countries are be difficult to convince to adopt smarter ways of developing.


Ed:
They are only doing what they saw the Western European nations doing in their histories. That is the only teachers they had. Look at the denuded forests in Germany, France and England. Look at the coal slag heaps in Wales. Look at the blighted land in West Virginia and other other coal areas. C'mon, Ed. We taught them. Now we are trying to tell them to think before they blight their land, and their saying, " It never stopped you". We are still doing it.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Ed:
They are only doing what they saw the Western European nations doing in their histories. That is the only teachers they had. Look at the denuded forests in Germany, France and England. Look at the coal slag heaps in Wales. Look at the blighted land in West Virginia and other other coal areas. C'mon, Ed. We taught them. Now we are trying to tell them to think before they blight their land, and their saying, " It never stopped you". We are still doing it.


Dennis:

Yes we made mistakes and have adopted some of the toughest environmental laws possible to prevent this from occurring again. Do we sit by and let them learn the hard way? Should we let the same nations keep spreading AIDS because we have no right to lecture them? What's the call here old friend?:rolleyes:

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

Yes we made mistakes and have adopted some of the toughest environmental laws possible to prevent this from occurring again. Do we sit by and let them learn the hard way? Should we let the same nations keep spreading AIDS because we have no right to lecture them? What's the call here old friend?:rolleyes:

Do you know where AIDS came from? It's entirely possible it was a result of a pursuit of a hepatitis B drug using Chimps. Geneticist say that the virus is not naturally developed. So, the poor of Africa probably got this infection from the industrialized nations.

I don't have the answer, if I did, I would be a billionaire. However, pontificating to these struggling nations certainly isn't going to get their attention.

Some examples. Reports from Europe show that 90% of the rivers in Europe have high concentrations of nitrates from agriculture. 75% of waterways in Poland are unusable by even industry. 3/4 of China's rivers not longer support fish life.

Global warming isn't the problem, pollution by agricultural chemicals, cities and industrial waste is a far greater threat than a few degrees of temperature and a few nastier hurricanes in the summer. None of which can be factually attributed to human society.

Anyway, probably should curtail this discussion.

[old_pop2000]

If you have found our discussion on this thread interesting about Global Warming, climate etc. Here is a site that states:
World Climate Report has become the definitive and unimpeachable source for what Nature now calls the “mainstream skeptic” point of view, which is that climate change is a largely overblown issue and that the best expectation is modest change over the next 100 years

I offer the site to educate and inform, not to change minds. I simply want all of you to understand both sides of this issue. I am simply asking you to be a skeptic about what the mainstream media tells you. Let's not politicize this, let's keep it scientific.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/about-us/

In order to provide a balance, technical viewpoint, I offer the link to the IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change.

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Thanks

[Ed Rotondaro]

Do you know where AIDS came from? It's entirely possible it was a result of a pursuit of a hepatitis B drug using Chimps. Geneticist say that the virus is not naturally developed. So, the poor of Africa probably got this infection from the industrialized nations.



Dennis:

There's lots of speculation on where the AIDS virus came from and how it came about so I'm not going to place the blame on the industrialized nations until there is definitive proof. Some say it may have evolved from a polio vaccine. If so how it did it end up in monkees? They have found viruses similar to AIDS in primates and there still is a lot of meat trade in these animals in Africa.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

There's lots of speculation on where the AIDS virus came from and how it came about so I'm not going to place the blame on the industrialized nations until there is definitive proof. Some say it may have evolved from a polio vaccine. If so how it did it end up in monkees? They have found viruses similar to AIDS in primates and there still is a lot of meat trade in these animals in Africa.


Well, as a parting shot, because MIB is watching, geneticist know it was not naturally created. It resembles a hepatitis B vaccine that was developed and tested on some people. However, in fairness, they are still tracking its development, but if that is true, it had to come from a sophisticated lab and only rich nations have the funds for that.

Enough, I believe.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Well, as a parting shot, because MIB is watching, geneticist know it was not naturally created. It resembles a hepatitis B vaccine that was developed and tested on some people. However, in fairness, they are still tracking its development, but if that is true, it had to come from a sophisticated lab and only rich nations have the funds for that.

Enough, I believe.

Dennis:

Got any links on this topic? I would very much like to read more on it. End of the topic on this thread as you said.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

Got any links on this topic? I would very much like to read more on it. End of the topic on this thread as you said.

I will pass them along, when I've sorted the scientifically based, non-politicized ones from the BS. That might be never. Everyone is trying to point the finger at everyone else. Aids might be a form of cancer that mutated also. Will keep advised.

Here is something to examine from GAO-

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d02809r.pdf

[Ed Rotondaro]

I will pass them along, when I've sorted the scientifically based, non-politicized ones from the BS. That might be never. Everyone is trying to point the finger at everyone else. Aids might be a form of cancer that mutated also. Will keep advised.

Here is something to examine from GAO-

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d02809r.pdf

Thanks, I downloaded that. A lot of people don't realize how much good info is produced on a wide range of topics by the GAO. I like the new signature, I guess the latin one was as amusing?

[old_pop2000]

Well, Gustav is history, but we now have the Three Amigos. Hanna, Ike and Josephine.

Hanna is a TS with winds to 60mph, barometric readings at 988 MB headed NW at 12 knts.

Ike is a Cat. 4 Hurricane with winds speeds gusting to 135 mph. He is headed WNW at 12 knts. This one is nasty. There is only a 10% chance that it will shear to the NE and miss the US. The storm track cone says the center of the path is through Miami, but if you live anywhere along the NE coast of Florida and rest of the east coast, start monitoring NOAA and local alerting systems.

Josephine is a TS but stationary, out in eastern Atlantic. Not much of a threat at this time.


Y'all have a nice day, now!!

[Campy]

Hanna looks to be heading up along the entire east coast. Expected to become a hurricane.

Frank

[old_pop2000]

Hanna looks to be heading up along the entire east coast. Expected to become a hurricane.

Frank

That's what the 5 day cone tells you. Hope it is correct.

See attachment.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Hanna looks to be heading up along the entire east coast. Expected to become a hurricane.

Frank

Campy:

Yeah that should ruin my weekend with rain at least. Still the heat and humidity we're experiencing in the Northeast will break. Figures, summer's over and we get a heatwave.:rolleyes:

[Ed Rotondaro]

That's what the 5 day cone tells you. Hope it is correct.

See attachment.

What are you going to change you signature every day? We'll have to read all your posts just to keep up. Wonder if I can TiVo them?:D

[old_pop2000]

What are you going to change you signature every day? We'll have to read all your posts just to keep up. Wonder if I can TiVo them?:D

You, sir, are just jealous of my creativity and spontaneity. Eat your heart out. :D

[old_pop2000]

It seems that Ike is the one to watch. Hanna will ruin this weekend on the east coast, but the 5 day cone for Ike looks very bad for either the west or east coast of Florida and possibly Alabama.

FYI- It's sunny, 93 degrees at 1444 hrs outside right now in SoCal. Probably winds gusting to 5 maybe 6 knots.

[Ed Rotondaro]

You, sir, are just jealous of my creativity and spontaneity. Eat your heart out. :D

I'm just too lazy to change my signature every day. Put on one of them battle helmets and we'll see how creative you are LOL! How's the cooking class?;)

[Ed Rotondaro]

It seems that Ike is the one to watch. Hanna will ruin this weekend on the east coast, but the 5 day cone for Ike looks very bad for either the west or east coast of Florida and possibly Alabama.

FYI- It's sunny, 93 degrees at 1444 hrs outside right now in SoCal. Probably winds gusting to 5 maybe 6 knots.


Dennis:

We got some of Hanna's rain very early this morning, but it didn't even prevent my son's soccer game (he scored three goals!). It's raining very gently now, but should intensify as the day goes on (I have plenty of indoor things to do). Is SoCal still in a drought?

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

We got some of Hanna's rain very early this morning, but it didn't even prevent my son's soccer game (he scored three goals!). It's raining very gently now, but should intensify as the day goes on (I have plenty of indoor things to do). Is SoCal still in a drought?

Absolutely, it hit 100 degrees on my wireless remote weather station in the gazebo.

Don't be fooled by Hanna, the worst section hasn't really gotten up north yet, it's still in Virginia and Maryland. The worst of her is going to be in New York state and the NE tomorrow then out to sea. However, the rain bands are in eastern NY, not western up state NY, I believe you will get enough to wet the ground, but not enough to fill the rain gauges.

Take care, if you drive.;)

[old_pop2000]

Hurricane Ike has been upgraded to a cat 4, heading WNW at 15 mph. He has winds in excess of 135 mph with gusts even higher. His five day cone should take him through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf. He should hit hot water and intensify. We can only hope that he weakens if he hits Cuba and the Grand Bahamas. After Gustav, there is upwelling occurring in the Gulf, which usually mixes the water bringing the colder water up from the depths of 6000 ft to the surface. This might help. The prognostication after 5 days is not accurate enough to be of any value. In fact, the 3 day cone is probably the most accurate. There are several hurricane models that are used, they have to agree for the center to determine the path.

Watch yourselves in the Gulf Coast and Florida. Ike could make a sharp right turn and simply cut straight across the Florida panhandle or start bearing NE across Alabama.

[Kyle Holgate]

Here is a good website for weather stuff - I particularly like the weatherblog by Dr. Jeff Masters that is found on the right of the screen.

http://www.wunderground.com/

[old_pop2000]

Here is a good website for weather stuff - I particularly like the weatherblog by Dr. Jeff Masters that is found on the right of the screen.

http://www.wunderground.com/

Excellent website, I use it all the time along with the NOAA site.

[old_pop2000]

Hurricane Ike will be heading into the gulf this afternoon or evening after pounding Cuba. She is still a cat 1 and might weaken, but when he hits the warm gulf waters, he will strengthen to a back to a cat 2 maybe a cat 3.

There is a high pressure system in the plains and extending into the Southeast. This high should force Ike to the W. This puts Corpus Christi and that area in danger. The 5 day cone runs from western LA to Mexico and includes the whole of the Texas coast. Ike is moving at 12 mph but could speed up in the next 24 hours.

Commander, batten down the hatches.:D

[Scott Chisholm]

Commander, batten down the hatches.:D

The hell with that! The foundation of my house is only 9 feet above sea level! I'm going to get kicked out of my house either Thursday night or Friday morning.

I'm heading to San Antonio and drink margaritas on the River Walk :D!

[old_pop2000]

The hell with that! The foundation of my house is only 9 feet above sea level! I'm going to get kicked out of my house either Thursday night or Friday morning.

I'm heading to San Antonio and drink margaritas on the River Walk :D!


Yea, that's a great place. There's an italian restaurant where the boats turn around that has some great Bruschetta. There is also a good cigar shop inside.

9 feet above sea level, hmm, Commander, you should have built a submarine, instead of a home. The storm surge from a cat 3 could be as high as 15 to 20 feet. Bring a snorkel.:D

[Scott Chisholm]

Yea, that's a great place. There's an italian restaurant where the boats turn around that has some great Bruschetta. There is also a good cigar shop inside.

9 feet above sea level, hmm, Commander, you should have built a submarine, instead of a home. The storm surge from a cat 3 could be as high as 15 to 20 feet. Bring a snorkel.:D

Dennis,

BIG sand dunes on Padre Island. I seem to remember Padre Island not going under until the storm surge reached 12-15 feet.

In any event, it looks like IKE might turn north a bit and put us in the least dangerour semicircle. One can hope, but I just finished putting up my storm shutters....

[old_pop2000]

Dennis,

BIG sand dunes on Padre Island. I seem to remember Padre Island not going under until the storm surge reached 12-15 feet.

In any event, it looks like IKE might turn north a bit and put us in the least dangerour semicircle. One can hope, but I just finished putting up my storm shutters....

I don't want to rain on your parade, Scott, but don't count on too much of a change to the north, there is a nice high pressure sitting up their. However, I hope it does, for your sake.

As far as barrier islands like Padre, they tend to hammered like Andrew did to Raccoon Island, when it washed away the western spit of land. It depends on the angle the storm surge hits the barrier. Some of the South Padre Island area is around 7 feet, if I remember the report I read. A 20 foot rise will override the barrier near Baffin Bay, Capano, and Aransas and flood those areas, I think. I have doubts anything of that nature will be generated. Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson usually generated 9-12 feet above normal, so let's hope there isn't a high tide.

I think you'll be fine, it wouldn't dare flood a commander's house, now would it?;)

[Scott Chisholm]

I don't want to rain on your parade, Scott, but don't count on too much of a change to the north, there is a nice high pressure sitting up their. However, I hope it does, for your sake.

As far as barrier islands like Padre, they tend to hammered like Andrew did to Raccoon Island, when it washed away the western spit of land. It depends on the angle the storm surge hits the barrier. Some of the South Padre Island area is around 7 feet, if I remember the report I read. A 20 foot rise will override the barrier near Baffin Bay, Capano, and Aransas and flood those areas, I think. I have doubts anything of that nature will be generated. Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson usually generated 9-12 feet above normal, so let's hope there isn't a high tide.

I think you'll be fine, it wouldn't dare flood a commander's house, now would it?;)

Not my house; I bought it for my wife on our 13th anniversary. I set the closing up for the time of our wedding on our anniversary.

For Mother Nature's sake, it'd better not flood my wife's house! Hell hath no wrath as a woman drenched! :eek:

[old_pop2000]

Not my house; I bought it for my wife on our 13th anniversary. I set the closing up for the time of our wedding on our anniversary.

For Mother Nature's sake, it'd better not flood my wife's house! Hell hath no wrath as a woman drenched! :eek:


That's true, my friend. Luckily, we are 385 feet above sea level at our house and have around 25 miles of terra firma between the Pacific and our house. Even global warming won't reach us, although I might end up with the beach about 15 miles closer. We have a ridge between the ocean and us which is a remnant of a beach front from 100,000,000 years ago, so I figure I am safe.

[Mike D]

Dennis,

BIG sand dunes on Padre Island. I seem to remember Padre Island not going under until the storm surge reached 12-15 feet.

In any event, it looks like IKE might turn north a bit and put us in the least dangerour semicircle. One can hope, but I just finished putting up my storm shutters....

Actually that's not quite true any more. Padre is currently in a net sand loss situation. Most of the sand for Padre Island came from the Rio Grande river which no longer runs to the sea. For the last 12+years the Rio Grande has been stagnant after Brownsville. The cities and farms on both sides of the river have pumped it dry. You can even see this on Google Earth. Look at the mouth of the Rio Grande and you'll see that the delta is gone and that the river actually stops about 500' from the surf line.

What that means is that Padre Island is having to truck in sand from the other end of the island, west Texas and Mexico to rebuild the continous beach erosion. The sand trucked in is a tan color moderatly sorted, corser, muddier and angular while the native sand is fine, well sorted, rounded and a bleached tan to white. So that means smaller more moble dunes and more danger of washouts from storm surge. Of corse it doesn't matter, Padre Island is now solid pavement from the Brazos Pass in the south to Convention center in the north. Do I sound bitter? Damn skippy! Ruined one of my favorite places. Grumble, mumble....

[john964]

Actually that's not quite true any more. Padre is currently in a net sand loss situation. Most of the sand for Padre Island came from the Rio Grande river which no longer runs to the sea. For the last 12+years the Rio Grande has been stagnant after Brownsville. The cities and farms on both sides of the river have pumped it dry. You can even see this on Google Earth. Look at the mouth of the Rio Grande and you'll see that the delta is gone and that the river actually stops about 500' from the surf line.

What that means is that Padre Island is having to truck in sand from the other end of the island, west Texas and Mexico to rebuild the continous beach erosion. The sand trucked in is a tan color moderatly sorted, corser, muddier and angular while the native sand is fine, well sorted, rounded and a bleached tan to white. So that means smaller more moble dunes and more danger of washouts from storm surge. Of corse it doesn't matter, Padre Island is now solid pavement from the Brazos Pass in the south to Convention center in the north. Do I sound bitter? Damn skippy! Ruined one of my favorite places. Grumble, mumble....The samething happened to the Colorado River about 20 years ago IIRC the river turns into mud about a mile from the Sea of Cortez and it is getting worse.

[Ed Rotondaro]

The hell with that! The foundation of my house is only 9 feet above sea level! I'm going to get kicked out of my house either Thursday night or Friday morning.

I'm heading to San Antonio and drink margaritas on the River Walk :D!

Scott:

I hope your house will be OK. Enjoy the River Walk, my wife spoke highly of it the last time she visited Texas.

[Scott Chisholm]

Looks like margaritas on the River Walk have been vetoed by CinCHOUSE....:mad:

With the storm inching northward, my mother in law's house is now out of the danger area. So, we're heading south instead of north.

Perhaps there will be some Beach Bunnies at South Padre Island? :p

[old_pop2000]

Looks like margaritas on the River Walk have been vetoed by CinCHOUSE....:mad:

With the storm inching northward, my mother in law's house is now out of the danger area. So, we're heading south instead of north.

Perhaps there will be some Beach Bunnies at South Padre Island? :p

You better hope that the War Department(AKA CinCHouse) hasn't heard that, or you are deep kim shee. ;)

[Scott Chisholm]

You better hope that the War Department(AKA CinCHouse) hasn't heard that, or you are deep kim shee. ;)

Yeah, I tried that "Honey, I live in a live action art gallery" line a time or two. "You wouldn't expect me to touch the Mona Lisa, would you? So what's the problem with me looking at the red head in the green thong?"

That flew about as far as an EA-6B on a cold cat....

[old_pop2000]

Yeah, I tried that "Honey, I live in a live action art gallery" line a time or two. "You wouldn't expect me to touch the Mona Lisa, would you? So what's the problem with me looking at the red head in the green thong?"

That flew about as far as an EA-6B on a cold cat....


Yeah, now you know why I go to the mall or market alone once in a while.:D

By the way, you are going to your mother-in-laws for the hurricane. Isn't that like going out of frying pan into the fire? I used to consider that like going downtown Hanoi in an F-105; very very dangerous.:eek: You're a better man, than I am, Gunga Din.:D

[Scott Chisholm]

Yeah, now you know why I go to the mall or market alone once in a while.:D

By the way, you are going to your mother-in-laws for the hurricane. Isn't that like going out of frying pan into the fire? I used to consider that like going downtown Hanoi in an F-105; very very dangerous.:eek: You're a better man, than I am, Gunga Din.:D

My MIL is pretty cool - I gave her the movie "Monster In Law" for Christmas a few years ago as a joke. She hates Fonda worse than I do.

Anyway, I've known her for 30 years - since I was in High School - so she's more of a second mom than a MIL to me.

[old_pop2000]

My MIL is pretty cool - I gave her the movie "Monster In Law" for Christmas a few years ago as a joke. She hates Fonda worse than I do.

Anyway, I've known her for 30 years - since I was in High School - so she's more of a second mom than a MIL to me.


That sounds great, my MIL passed away about four to five years ago. She was a nice lady. I think I kinda grew on her over time.

BTW, be careful of Hurricane Ike. It might start heading more westerly tonight or tomorrow. Remember the right side of the storm based on the direction of movement is the worst. His strongest winds are in a band over 230 miles across the eye. Keep safe, mate. Don't get brave on us.

[john964]

My MIL is pretty cool - I gave her the movie "Monster In Law" for Christmas a few years ago as a joke. She hates Fonda worse than I do.

Anyway, I've known her for 30 years - since I was in High School - so she's more of a second mom than a MIL to me.You want Horror Stories about In Laws try my former ones. To say they were less than happy with there daugter marring me would be an understatment of biblical proportions.

[old_pop2000]

During the night, Ike's pressure dropped to 944 mb, which is low, however the eye wall wind speeds did not increase, but the wind band did increase. This makes Ike even more dangerous than Katrina, IMHO. NHS says the storm surge model shows a possible storm surge up to 20 feet. IIRC, Galveston's sea wall is only 17 feet, so there will be some lopping over.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters in his blog, Ike's tropical force wind band is 275 miles across, with the hurricane wind band at 115 miles from the center. Here is a link to his blog's page on Ike. Thanks to Kyle, I forgot about his excellent website.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Ed Rotondaro]

Yeah, I tried that "Honey, I live in a live action art gallery" line a time or two. "You wouldn't expect me to touch the Mona Lisa, would you? So what's the problem with me looking at the red head in the green thong?"

That flew about as far as an EA-6B on a cold cat....

Scott:

Have you tried "Just because I'm on a diet doesn't mean I can't read the menu"?:D

[john964]

Scott:

Have you tried "Just because I'm on a diet doesn't mean I can't read the menu"?:D

Three things you always lie about with your wife.

1) Does this dress make me look fat?
2) Do you think that girl look pretty?
3) Do you think I need to lose weight?

Answer wrong and you better hope the couch is comfortable.

[old_pop2000]

Three things you always lie about with your wife.

1) Does this dress make me look fat?
2) Do you think that girl look pretty?
3) Do you think I need to lose weight?

Answer wrong and you better hope the couch is comfortable.


My daughter once warned me about the phrase " is that women fatter than me". Anyway that you answer, you lose. So, my response is simply, "What women, dear" and smile. :D

[keschofield]

My daughter once warned me about the phrase " is that women fatter than me". Anyway that you answer, you lose. So, my response is simply, "What women, dear" and smile. :D


O retired one, you are a very wise man!:D

[Scott Chisholm]

Scott:

Have you tried "Just because I'm on a diet doesn't mean I can't read the menu"?:D

Ed,

I'm crazy, but not stupid.... :D

Whenever I see some hot chick on tv and get the hairy eyeball from CinCHOUSE, I say something like, "What? She's hot! But, it would never work...she's only (at this time I'm holding my thumb and forefinger about 4 inches apart) this tall. You're here and in the flesh."

That usually earns me two hairy eyeballs. :eek:

Okay, maybe I am stupid....

To give you an idea about the size of IKE, the eye is presently expected to make landfall just south of Galvaston. We're expecting hurricane force winds (~80mph) in Corpus (about 150 miles south of the eye) and tropical storm winds in Harlingen (nearly 300 miles south as the car drives).

My nephew is a police officer in Pasadena, TX (one of the burbs of Houston)....

[old_pop2000]

To give you an idea about the size of IKE, the eye is presently expected to make landfall just south of Galvaston. We're expecting hurricane force winds (~80mph) in Corpus (about 150 miles south of the eye) and tropical storm winds in Harlingen (nearly 300 miles south as the car drives).




Yes, the Hurricane winds are out, 115 miles either side of the eye. That's about 230 miles of them. But the real danger is the storm surge created by the constant high winds. In Western Louisiana they are already getting a 6 ft. surge. Good luck and take care.

[Kyle Holgate]

Yes, the Hurricane winds are out, 115 miles either side of the eye. That's about 230 miles of them. But the real danger is the storm surge created by the constant high winds. In Western Louisiana they are already getting a 6 ft. surge. Good luck and take care.

The winds with Ike are not the problem, the storm surge may be a record. Reading the blog over on weather underground - the storm is so big that it's whipping up a huge surge, even though it's not as strong as far as winds go.
Listening to NPR this morning, as usual there are people that won't leave. "I went through hurricane {insert name here} just fine". Gotta wonder about them... I hope they haven't had kids before it hits, IMO they shouldn't be in the genepool.

[old_pop2000]

The winds with Ike are not the problem, the storm surge may be a record. Reading the blog over on weather underground - the storm is so big that it's whipping up a huge surge, even though it's not as strong as far as winds go.
Listening to NPR this morning, as usual there are people that won't leave. "I went through hurricane {insert name here} just fine". Gotta wonder about them... I hope they haven't had kids before it hits, IMO they shouldn't be in the genepool.

Roger that, my friend. The eye wall broke down over the cold water eddy and now is rebuilding but instead of stronger winds, the hurricane wind band is increasing which, as you well know, is the worst that could happen. With a 20 foot surge coming at almost right angles to the seawalls, I wouldn't give you a plug nickel for anyone in the immediate coastal zones. Have you seen the SLOSH patterns generated? Not real good.

IMHO, there are a lot of people who shouldn't be in the gene pool. Thomas Huxley was vilified when he made similar statements about certain people should not be allowed to continue reproducing. However, MIB is watching, so the subject is verboten.

[Kyle Holgate]

Roger that, my friend. The eye wall broke down over the cold water eddy and now is rebuilding but instead of stronger winds, the hurricane wind band is increasing which, as you well know, is the worst that could happen. With a 20 foot surge coming at almost right angles to the seawalls, I wouldn't give you a plug nickel for anyone in the immediate coastal zones. Have you seen the SLOSH patterns generated? Not real good.

IMHO, there are a lot of people who shouldn't be in the gene pool. Thomas Huxley was vilified when he made similar statements about certain people should not be allowed to continue reproducing. However, MIB is watching, so the subject is verboten.

Disucssions on who should and should not be making babies isn't political (but is probably a hot potato issue). Not the subject of the thread though, so I'll leave it alone.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Ed,

I'm crazy, but not stupid.... :D

Whenever I see some hot chick on tv and get the hairy eyeball from CinCHOUSE, I say something like, "What? She's hot! But, it would never work...she's only (at this time I'm holding my thumb and forefinger about 4 inches apart) this tall. You're here and in the flesh."

That usually earns me two hairy eyeballs. :eek:

Okay, maybe I am stupid....

To give you an idea about the size of IKE, the eye is presently expected to make landfall just south of Galvaston. We're expecting hurricane force winds (~80mph) in Corpus (about 150 miles south of the eye) and tropical storm winds in Harlingen (nearly 300 miles south as the car drives).

My nephew is a police officer in Pasadena, TX (one of the burbs of Houston)....

Scott:

Man you are crazy, but I'd still buy ya a beer anyday of the week!

We're all praying for you folks in Texas. Stay safe my friend.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Roger that, my friend. The eye wall broke down over the cold water eddy and now is rebuilding but instead of stronger winds, the hurricane wind band is increasing which, as you well know, is the worst that could happen. With a 20 foot surge coming at almost right angles to the seawalls, I wouldn't give you a plug nickel for anyone in the immediate coastal zones. Have you seen the SLOSH patterns generated? Not real good.

IMHO, there are a lot of people who shouldn't be in the gene pool. Thomas Huxley was vilified when he made similar statements about certain people should not be allowed to continue reproducing. However, MIB is watching, so the subject is verboten.

Dennis:

There is nothing longer than waiting out the night when a hurricane like this hits land. May God protect those people.

[asnrobert]

I guess in this instance, we DON'T like Ike...

[Ed Rotondaro]

I guess in this instance, we DON'T like Ike...

Robert:

You're too young to even know that expression LOL!