Global warming/Climate change

[Kyle Holgate]

In the US the topic is very polticised but I'm hoping we can have a non political (and within the forum rules) discussion about it here.

I'm curious generally how may people view that humans are the cause vs how many believe it's probably a normal climate change, something Earth has gone through before.

2nd curiosity - based on your observations where you live, are there changes that you have seen? Is it getting generally hotter, drier, colder, more storms, etc?

Out here in NW Oregon the weather has gotten a bit warmer, we used to get snow every winter now we hardly ever get any that sticks. Rain amounts have gone down some. When it does rain it rains more, but less often. I happen to like that, it's not cloudy and drizzly for days on end like it used to be when I was a kid!

[old_pop2000]

In the US the topic is very polticised but I'm hoping we can have a non political (and within the forum rules) discussion about it here.

I'm curious generally how may people view that humans are the cause vs how many believe it's probably a normal climate change, something Earth has gone through before.

2nd curiosity - based on your observations where you live, are there changes that you have seen? Is it getting generally hotter, drier, colder, more storms, etc?

Out here in NW Oregon the weather has gotten a bit warmer, we used to get snow every winter now we hardly ever get any that sticks. Rain amounts have gone down some. When it does rain it rains more, but less often. I happen to like that, it's not cloudy and drizzly for days on end like it used to be when I was a kid!


I believe that we do not understand the global climate and all the factors that affect it. Paleoclimatology is still a new science. We have only proven in the last sixty years, that the continents were moving using geomagnetic data from the Naval surveys. We used to think the ice shelf on Antarctic was shrinking due to global warming, now we know there is a thermal vent beneath the continent, with lava welling up and that is most likely the cause.

We need to continue to be concerned, but not panic. We need to clean up the atmosphere of carbon emissions and restore the forests to ensure a clean atmosphere, whether it affects the global climate or not. We should also continue to fund paleoclimatology, climatological studies of the upper atmosphere and solar studies of the variations in the solar output. We also need to educate our people as to what we do know and what we don't know about all this science. And someone give the politicians something to do.:D

In my neck of the woods, when I was growing up, we used to get the "june gloom". Light, early morning low clouds and fog, clearing in the afternoon. This occurred through much of May and June, now it is very brief in April. In September we used to get our easterly hot, and dry winds called Santa Ana's. We now get them in November. Rain is mostly in November with brief showers in January, with rain amounts now averaging less than 3 inches. Our climatalogical average was 10 inches. We now get almost 10 to 15 days of temperatures in the inland valley area where I live, over 110 degrees. Yea, I would say it is getting hotter. However, the cycle maybe normal, we don't have records that go back farther than 140 years. When we get our El Nino effect, we can get 20 inches of rain, and flooding occurs. It just doesn't happen as frequently as it used to.

[djcyclone]

In Illinois I have noticed that the Winters are getting easier to bear every year. I personally think that we do have an issue, but I do not believe that it is as bad as they are trying to make it seem. Weather is always an unpredictable thing, and we have to consider that this might be a natural thing.

When I think of severe storms, I go back to the Tri State Tornado that started in Northern Kentucky and stopped in Iowa. It traveled all the way through Illinois and killed hundreds of people in th 1800's. Was Global Warming an Issue then?.

My personal opinion is that we simply need to let technology move at its own pace. If we try to change anything now, then we will really mess stuff up. The wheel is simply to big to stop and try to modify something. Let technology do what it has always done, and we will be fine.

I do have an idea of how to create vehicles, trains, ships, and some types of aircraft that will not require the use of oil or any other fuel for that matter. It will probably be about 10 years before I can have enough money and enough room to start experimenting with it, but if my idea works, then oil will quickly become a thing of the past.:D

[Scott Chisholm]

In the '70s we were entering a new ice age. We would frequently get ice storms here in Corpus Christi, TX. We were all going to freeze to death before the year 2000.

Now, our winters are very mild, and the summers are a bit hotter than the winters. In fact, this July has seen the warmest temperatures in Corpus all year! And, I believe the mosquitoes are a bit larger. :eek:

Is the Earth warming? Yep. So is Mars and Venus. The Big Bright Light In The Sky probably has something to do with it.

I read somewhere some time ago (I know, really specific) that a single volcano erupting dumped more greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere than all of humanity throughout all of history. If that's true, then I doubt humans are having a significant effect on the subject.

I'm all for being a Good Steward, but I'm not going to kill myself to prevent emitting carbon as I'm not certain the little birdies in the trees would appreciate my sacrifice.

[john964]

I read somewhere some time ago (I know, really specific) that a single volcano erupting dumped more greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere than all of humanity throughout all of history. If that's true, then I doubt humans are having a significant effect on the subject.


In 1815 Mt Tambora goes boom, 1816 is known as the year without a summer.

Here are some facts. The Earths Atmosphere is compossed of 78.084% Nitrogen 20.947% Oxygen for a total of 99%. The rest of all the gasses make up the rest. Carbon dioxide is 0.033% of that total.

[Ed Rotondaro]

I believe that we do not understand the global climate and all the factors that affect it. Paleoclimatology is still a new science. We have only proven in the last sixty years, that the continents were moving using geomagnetic data from the Naval surveys. We used to think the ice shelf on Antarctic was shrinking due to global warming, now we know there is a thermal vent beneath the continent, with lava welling up and that is most likely the cause.

We need to continue to be concerned, but not panic. We need to clean up the atmosphere of carbon emissions and restore the forests to ensure a clean atmosphere, whether it affects the global climate or not. We should also continue to fund paleoclimatology, climatological studies of the upper atmosphere and solar studies of the variations in the solar output. We also need to educate our people as to what we do know and what we don't know about all this science. And someone give the politicians something to do.:D

In my neck of the woods, when I was growing up, we used to get the "june gloom". Light, early morning low clouds and fog, clearing in the afternoon. This occurred through much of May and June, now it is very brief in April. In September we used to get our easterly hot, and dry winds called Santa Ana's. We now get them in November. Rain is mostly in November with brief showers in January, with rain amounts now averaging less than 3 inches. Our climatalogical average was 10 inches. We now get almost 10 to 15 days of temperatures in the inland valley area where I live, over 110 degrees. Yea, I would say it is getting hotter. However, the cycle maybe normal, we don't have records that go back farther than 140 years. When we get our El Nino effect, we can get 20 inches of rain, and flooding occurs. It just doesn't happen as frequently as it used to.

Dennis:

The key here is caution and concern, not panic. We still don't have anywhere near enough data to make a valid hypothesis. Too many scientists are going for the easy glory and fame by shouting warnings rather than doing long term analysis. I had the privelege of working with a world renowned Russian statistician who when he wasn't teaching worked for NOAH. He said the computer model for climate study was so complex that no one could guarantee its accuracy. There is a lot we don't know, but it is obvious we should at least control pollution.

[old_pop2000]

In 1815 Mt Tambora goes boom, 1816 is known as the year without a summer.

Here are some facts. The Earths Atmosphere is compossed of 78.084% Nitrogen 20.947% Oxygen for a total of 99%. The rest of all the gasses make up the rest. Carbon dioxide is 0.033% of that total.


The eruption of Mount Toba in Indonesia 74,000 years ago, may have contributed to a reduction of the world population to around 15,000 people. These kinds of eruptions can have terrible effects when they occur, although they are rare. Krakatoa and Pinatubo both caused climatic effects over the following years, including colors in the sky that have been recorded. There are eruptions occurring every year, small ones, medium size one and all are contributing. I believe more and better science is important along with lifestyle changes that can be gradual, around the world. Third world countries and emerging industrial countries like China and India need to participate and ensure that their path to economic self-sufficiency is not paved with the lifes of people victimized by the effects of a lack of attention to their contribution to the increased emissions.

[Mike Malanaphy]

In the US the topic is very polticised but I'm hoping we can have a non political (and within the forum rules) discussion about it here.

I'm curious generally how may people view that humans are the cause vs how many believe it's probably a normal climate change, something Earth has gone through before.

2nd curiosity - based on your observations where you live, are there changes that you have seen? Is it getting generally hotter, drier, colder, more storms, etc?

Out here in NW Oregon the weather has gotten a bit warmer, we used to get snow every winter now we hardly ever get any that sticks. Rain amounts have gone down some. When it does rain it rains more, but less often. I happen to like that, it's not cloudy and drizzly for days on end like it used to be when I was a kid!

Hi Kyle,

I have lived in Oregon since 1952 and remeber the winters benig colder. I can remember Multnomah Falls being completely frozen and there are numerous pictures of the Columbia River being completely frozen over from early in the last century. We had kind of a storm of the century blizzard in 1968 which shut the state down for several days.

Unfortunately, I believe the topic will remain politicized for some time. Too few people are educated in science and will react to the impact on their lifestyles on an emotional basis. Most discussions in the media over hype the extremes and provide more heat than illumination on the subject. Not to mention the cognitive dissonance of having rich people tell you to conserve and use less while living an energy lavish lifestyle. I suspect that message will not play to the 6 Billion that would like to have what we have and being told no.

The phrase being "addicted to oil" is as meaningless as saying your "addicted to oxygen". There are very good reasons why oil is used and at this point and there are no real alternatives that doesn't have tradeoffs of their own or is economically efficient. Most people worry about fueling their cars, but a quick look around the house will reveal most of what you have is made somewhere else and transported great distances to you ( like my books ). When I was a kid, my parents were amused when they asked me where food came from and I replied the store. I had no idea of the agricultural and transportation infrastructure that supplied. I suspect too many people think what they have comes from the internet or the UPS truck.

Ok, enough of that. Can we now argue over whether the Yamato or the Iowa had the bigger carbon footprint. :)

[Ed Rotondaro]

Hi Kyle,

I have lived in Oregon since 1952 and remeber the winters benig colder. I can remember Multnomah Falls being completely frozen and there are numerous pictures of the Columbia River being completely frozen over from early in the last century. We had kind of a storm of the century blizzard in 1968 which shut the state down for several days.

Unfortunately, I believe the topic will remain politicized for some time. Too few people are educated in science and will react to the impact on their lifestyles on an emotional basis. Most discussions in the media over hype the extremes and provide more heat than illumination on the subject. Not to mention the cognitive dissonance of having rich people tell you to conserve and use less while living an energy lavish lifestyle. I suspect that message will not play to the 6 Billion that would like to have what we have and being told no.

The phrase being "addicted to oil" is as meaningless as saying your "addicted to oxygen". There are very good reasons why oil is used and at this point and there are no real alternatives that doesn't have tradeoffs of their own or is economically efficient. Most people worry about fueling their cars, but a quick look around the house will reveal most of what you have is made somewhere else and transported great distances to you ( like my books ). When I was a kid, my parents were amused when they asked me where food came from and I replied the store. I had no idea of the agricultural and transportation infrastructure that supplied. I suspect too many people think what they have comes from the internet or the UPS truck.

Ok, enough of that. Can we now argue over whether the Yamato or the Iowa had the bigger carbon footprint. :)

Mike:

Good points, sacrifice is tough unless it is forced on a society.

Oh, Yamato has the bigger carbon footprint. That ship was a fuel hog.:D

[Mike Malanaphy]

Mike:

Good points, sacrifice is tough unless it is forced on a society.

Oh, Yamato has the bigger carbon footprint. That ship was a fuel hog.:D

Hi Ed,

Societies will take on sacrifice if the needs are explained to them, the sacrifice is shared ala WW II, and there is reasonable hope that the sacrifice will lead to better future to make the sacrifice worthwhile Unfortunately, western society has a bad case of "instant gratification" which is being transmitted to the rest of the world by the media. Gorbachev tried to hold onto communism while giving his people a taste of freedom, but the momentum of freedom was impossible to restrain. I think of 2 billion Indians and Chinese being shown a glimpse of what is offered by a high tech/high energy civilization and being told they can't have it or the Arab world learning that it's source of wealth is now worthless.

Some pretty scary scenarios are possible from those circumstances.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Hi Ed,

Societies will take on sacrifice if the needs are explained to them, the sacrifice is shared ala WW II, and there is reasonable hope that the sacrifice will lead to better future to make the sacrifice worthwhile Unfortunately, western society has a bad case of "instant gratification" which is being transmitted to the rest of the world by the media. Gorbachev tried to hold onto communism while giving his people a taste of freedom, but the momentum of freedom was impossible to restrain. I think of 2 billion Indians and Chinese being shown a glimpse of what is offered by a high tech/high energy civilization and being told they can't have it or the Arab world learning that it's source of wealth is now worthless.

Some pretty scary scenarios are possible from those circumstances.

Mike:

Unfortunately that is too true. Reminds me of the song by the Eagles entitled "The Last Resort".

"Who will provide the grand design?"
"What is yours and what is mine?"
"Because there is no more new frontier, we will have to make it here."
"To satisfy our endless needs and justify our bloody deeds."
"In the name of destiny, in the name of God."

Hopefully Don Henley won't sue me for quoting his lyrics!