What if the Alamein Line was breached?

[mcaryf1]

I have been looking at the other troops the Allies had in the Middle East when the First Battle of Alamein happened. It only seems to have amounted to about another 3 Divisions, none armoured, and Auchinleck had already stripped 3 Divisions from Cyprus, Syria etc to provide the troops that actually slowed and blocked Rommel.

I realise that Rommel was at his last gasp but the British had recently fought the Iraqis and the Persians who had armies of 4 and 9 Divisions respectively. Egypt's own military, Nasser etc, were hostile to the British as was the country. Thus if Rommel had got through the last defenders or they had arrived too late to block him, he had potentially a number of friendly countries where he could replenish his manpower.

During their later advance after the retreating Germans in 1944 the Soviets conscripted large numbers of peasants into the Red Army. I guess Rommel might have been able to do the same and arrive at the Russian border with about 250,000 troops before the Stalingrad situation had gone bad for the Germans. At the very least this could have sucked Russian troops away from that battle so the development of the Torch landings would have become very interesting.

Regards

Mike

[JMS]

I have been looking at the other troops the Allies had in the Middle East when the First Battle of Alamein happened. It only seems to have amounted to about another 3 Divisions, none armoured, and Auchinleck had already stripped 3 Divisions from Cyprus, Syria etc to provide the troops that actually slowed and blocked Rommel.

I realise that Rommel was at his last gasp but the British had recently fought the Iraqis and the Persians who had armies of 4 and 9 Divisions respectively. Egypt's own military, Nasser etc, were hostile to the British as was the country. Thus if Rommel had got through the last defenders or they had arrived too late to block him, he had potentially a number of friendly countries where he could replenish his manpower.

During their later advance after the retreating Germans in 1944 the Soviets conscripted large numbers of peasants into the Red Army. I guess Rommel might have been able to do the same and arrive at the Russian border with about 250,000 troops before the Stalingrad situation had gone bad for the Germans. At the very least this could have sucked Russian troops away from that battle so the development of the Torch landings would have become very interesting.

Regards

Mike


I think at that stage you could rate the Iraquis as non-existant and the Egyptians as negligible in terms of combat power. Crossing the Sinai was no small feat either and does not lead to anywhere of worth, they would also have to go across Jordan to get to the Iraqui oilfields.

If the Italo-germans managed to push on to Alexandria and Cairo, the RN would have been hard-pressed to keep on going in the Med from Haifa, but they would have retained a presence with submarines and small units.

At the same time, Panzerarmee Afrika would remain at the end of a long and vulnerable lifeline that could have been interdicted, and the further they go, the easier it is to cut it.

[old_pop2000]

I think at that stage you could rate the Iraquis as non-existant and the Egyptians as negligible in terms of combat power. Crossing the Sinai was no small feat either and does not lead to anywhere of worth, they would also have to go across Jordan to get to the Iraqui oilfields.

If the Italo-germans managed to push on to Alexandria and Cairo, the RN would have been hard-pressed to keep on going in the Med from Haifa, but they would have retained a presence with submarines and small units.

At the same time, Panzerarmee Afrika would remain at the end of a long and vulnerable lifeline that could have been interdicted, and the further they go, the easier it is to cut it.


Hi JMS:
The RN would have retreated through the Suez Canal and moved to its base at Aden, Yemen. That was the plan. It was the nearest, equipped base with fuel available.

Now, which way does Rommel head? He has two possible. He can head up the coast through Palestine, Lebanon to Damascus. There are German sympathizers in Syria and the whole area. Once that region has been captured, German forces can use Haifa as the supply base for the next move. He can head across near the Turkish border to Tabriz, then cross the mountains to Tbilisi and into Georgia to open up a second front and head for the Kerch Peninsula to meet Manstein. This is a very rough path of over 1800 miles.

The easier path is to cross the Sinai, head to Damascus then across to Baghdad. This will meet the Arabs who are friendly to the Germans and eliminate the Persian oil fields from British control. This would be in accord with the plan to meet the Japanese coming from the other direction. This action could force the RN out of Aden down to Mogadishu, the East African Naval Base.

Much of this depends on the logistic support from Germany and the events occurring in Russia. The German's are getting deeper into Russia, their logistics are getting pressed quite hard. The Italian forces will probably stop at Cairo, as they are mostly walking divisions and of no value in the areas Rommel will be heading. The Italian armour is useless. It probably is at the end of its capability. The Germans will have to reinforce Rommel with additional infantry and possibly one or two more panzer divisions. These might come from the Balkan areas as that is the quickest and easiest route.

What do the British do? Probably a fighting withdrawal up the coast to delay the Germans. If they try to head to Baghdad, the ground makes it easy for Rommel to use a series of outflanking movements. They might retire down the coast of Saudi Arabia to Yemen, to protect that base. Lots of options, and possibly few troops. They will also have a supply problem after Cairo falls.

Just some ideas.

[JMS]

The Germans were already nearing the end of their logistic tether in El Al, so going further without good ports is, to understate, complicated. I don't think Alexandria would be handed over in a usable way, but who knows...

Any way a pursuit beyond Cairo goes is going to run into geographical obstacles in the form of the Suez canal, the Jordan river or the mountains of Lebanon. Beyond the Jordan, Transjordania is a bit rough for motorised manoevuer, and there's quite a ride before getting to anywhere worthwile.

[Christian Schwietzke]

Not to mention that any line of supply running through Palestine would mean that Irgun et al would provide all sorts of enjoyment for their Nazi occupiers.

[mcaryf1]

I had not realised until some recent reading that important expertise for the Israeli military actually came from individuals from Polish army units allowed by Stalin to join the Allies in the Middle East. So I should have included 40,000 or so Poles less those that had already deserted to go to Israel.

The Mufti of Jerusalem was I think in Berlin at this time so possibly the Germans get a welcome in Jordan.

The distances are of course vast so whether Rommel could get anywhere near the Russian border would be doubtful although the Russians might need to move some strength to the South. However, the Turks could have been swayed by the threat of Germans on both their borders to throw their lot in with the Axis and they had around 50 divisions albeit poorly armed. The situation back in the UK would also be very difficult for Churchill. He had staked everything on a Middle East strategy at the expense of the Far East. If this had clearly failed could he retain his position as PM?

Regards

Mike

[old_pop2000]

I had not realised until some recent reading that important expertise for the Israeli military actually came from individuals from Polish army units allowed by Stalin to join the Allies in the Middle East. So I should have included 40,000 or so Poles less those that had already deserted to go to Israel.

The Mufti of Jerusalem was I think in Berlin at this time so possibly the Germans get a welcome in Jordan.

The distances are of course vast so whether Rommel could get anywhere near the Russian border would be doubtful although the Russians might need to move some strength to the South. However, the Turks could have been swayed by the threat of Germans on both their borders to throw their lot in with the Axis and they had around 50 divisions albeit poorly armed. The situation back in the UK would also be very difficult for Churchill. He had staked everything on a Middle East strategy at the expense of the Far East. If this had clearly failed could he retain his position as PM?

Regards

Mike

Hi Mike:
I assumed, rightly or wrongly, that the victory for Rommel was at Alam Halfa. If so, then how complete is the victory, can change the events afterward. Is the British army in an organized retreat, or was it mostly captured and destroyed with remnants fleeing back across the Suez Canal. To make a stand, they might try defending the coast road in the Sinai, Mitla and Gidda passes. If Rommel wants to pursue then he will let the Italians invest Cairo and resupply and rest his troops.

[mcaryf1]

Hi Dennis

I think Alam Halfa is only winnable for Rommel if something like my Indian Ocean interdiction has happened as there were just too many new troops plus materiel coming round the Cape between Ist Alamein and Alam Halfa.

The situation at the time of 1st Alamein was such that the Brits could have made a mess of it so that Rommel breaches the line at the Alamein position but he would not have been strong enough to fan out in pursuit immediately.

The reality was I think that Rommel had no chance of winning and exploiting unless other events had assisted him. If the IJN shut off the Allied reinforcement stream or the position in Russia is such that Auchinleck has to guard the North then he has a chance.

There is an interesting paper on the web by Freyburg discussing possibilities of the Germans coming through Turkey and threatening Syria. He personally thought they would not but the War Dept was worried.

It is here:

http://www.nzetc.org/tm/scholarly/tei-WH2-2Doc-c6.html

Regards

Mike

[Kyle Holgate]

I believe it's in the book "Third Reich Victorious" - but one of the scenarios discusses Rommel breaking through to capture Cairo and what comes after. It's been a while since I last read it, but I believe that in the story Rommel runs into problems due to logistics and that it's not all nice open desert any more. Instead of acting like land ships and having lots of room to maneuver terrain now limits attackers routes and also provides more defensive possibilities than open desert. No more going around defensive positions, now attackers have to go through or stop.