Geology, Volcanism and Humans

[old_pop2000]

Ok Dennis I have a kind of answer for your question. Essentially no, but there are about 10 caveats and qualifiers to the answer. Generally no because there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship to quakes and turbidites. You may or may not get a turbidite flow with a coastal quake and quake size doesn't correlate to turbidite flow size. Think mountains and snow; a big quake on a small mountain with just a foot of snow will give you a small avalanche, but a tiny quake on a huge mountain with 24ft of snow could give you a monster avalanche.

That said there is info that could correlate. If you could definitively correlate the quake and the flow then if enough is known about the pre-flow turbidite deposits, the flow and quake are in the same provenance, etc. then you may be able to evaluate some factors of one based on the other. The problem is not a lot of research has been done in the area. I did run across a paper "Scaling in Turbidite Deposits" by Rothman/Grotzinger/Flemmings where they tried to equate flow size and bedding size to seismic events but they had little luck. I asked 3 eggheads in the geology departments about it and each said instantly no, but then when I pushed them they all got that glassy eyed far-away look and changed their answer to 'no but...'. The question even got one professor curious enough he is going to get a grad student to do some research on it to see if its worth a full blown research project.

Good thinking Dennis.

Great work, mate. I didn't think the question would go that far. Turbidity currents are not a well understood phenomenon and to be able to understand the past, we would need to understand the physics and mechanics of the actual turbidity currents in detail. It would be interesting to see if past earthquakes can be sized by the thickness and level of graininess of the sediment. I am going to get more information on turbidity currents to refresh my mind. It's been about 40 years since we discussed it in Oceanography and we did not understand much then. I have been reading about that and other subjects.

My compliments for not laughing at the old guy. :p

[Mike D]

Great work, mate. I didn't think the question would go that far. Turbidity currents are not a well understood phenomenon and to be able to understand the past, we would need to understand the physics and mechanics of the actual turbidity currents in detail. It would be interesting to see if past earthquakes can be sized by the thickness and level of graininess of the sediment. I am going to get more information on turbidity currents to refresh my mind. It's been about 40 years since we discussed it in Oceanography and we did not understand much then. I have been reading about that and other subjects.

My compliments for not laughing at the old guy. :p

If you are looking around and find an article you can't get access to let me know. I have access to about all the databases and publishers and I'll get it for you.

[old_pop2000]

If you are looking around and find an article you can't get access to let me know. I have access to about all the databases and publishers and I'll get it for you.

Outstanding, I will do that. I really want to explore the turbidity currents and their causes. Then the turbites. So much to study, so little time.:D

[Mike D]

Outstanding, I will do that. I really want to explore the turbidity currents and their causes. Then the turbites. So much to study, so little time.:D

You can access Georef and others via the UT Geology Library (http://www.lib.utexas.edu/geo/links.html). You won't be able to view or download articles but you can search and read the abstracts. If you see something you want let me know.

[old_pop2000]

You can access Georef and others via the UT Geology Library (http://www.lib.utexas.edu/geo/links.html). You won't be able to view or download articles but you can search and read the abstracts. If you see something you want let me know.


I appreciate your time and effort. I've just been searching and found two interesting articles that I am wading through. Remember, its been a very long time since I studied this material, much of the language is new. But I have the internet and plenty of time.:D:)

[Ed Rotondaro]

I appreciate your time and effort. I've just been searching and found two interesting articles that I am wading through. Remember, its been a very long time since I studied this material, much of the language is new. But I have the internet and plenty of time.:D:)

Dennis:

Must be nice to have "free time" LOL! Enjoy.

[Kyle Holgate]

You can access Georef and others via the UT Geology Library (http://www.lib.utexas.edu/geo/links.html). You won't be able to view or download articles but you can search and read the abstracts. If you see something you want let me know.

There's quite a bit you CAN get at there and some useful links. I felt like a kid in a candy store just looking over the titles. Things are getting slow at work, here's to hoping I don't have lots of time to go through everything.

The studies I'm following (as best I can) are the ones to do with the tsunami's that have hit the NW coast as well as the estimated ground level changes as a result of the Cascadia quakes. Some places may quickly find themselves closer to or below sea level that are now dry land (well, as dry as the NW coast ever gets:rolleyes:) and that is before any tsunami comes to visit.

[old_pop2000]

This is interesting. Apparently there is study and research into turbidites as related to Sea of Marmara earthquakes.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.U51A0021C

Another abstract about the Japanese studying the intensity of earthquakes by examining sedimentation rates of Turbidites. If I read it correctly

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V6X-3VVT2YH-8&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=c771567ec781c391eab154bc0db70e9c

Lastly, this one sparked my interest


Deep-water turbidites as Holocene earthquake proxies: the Cascadia subduction zone and Northern San Andreas Fault systems

http://www.activetectonics.coas.oregonstate.edu/classes/Goldfinger.pdf

Here is an interesting quote from the paper


We have been investigating the use of turbidites
as paleo-earthquake proxies at the Cascadia
subduction zone and along the Northern San
Andreas Fault. A growing body of evidence from
both of these margin settings suggests that with
favorable physiography and sedimentological
conditions, turbidites can be used as earthquake
proxies with careful spatial and temporal correlations

[Mike D]

This is interesting. Apparently there is study and research into turbidites as related to Sea of Marmara earthquakes.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.U51A0021C

Another abstract about the Japanese studying the intensity of earthquakes by examining sedimentation rates of Turbidites. If I read it correctly

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V6X-3VVT2YH-8&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=c771567ec781c391eab154bc0db70e9c

Lastly, this one sparked my interest


Deep-water turbidites as Holocene earthquake proxies: the Cascadia subduction zone and Northern San Andreas Fault systems

http://www.activetectonics.coas.oregonstate.edu/classes/Goldfinger.pdf

Here is an interesting quote from the paper



Dennis your brilliant. Thanks to your simple little question I may have a new research project for the summer.

I contacted a UT alumnus that currently is at Colorado School of Mines and she looked in to a lacustrine (fresh water lake) analog to turbidite flows and their relationship to a local fault. She told me there is actually a name for what we are discussing, sisemites or sismo-tubidites. These three articles are first on my list to read.

Brilliant!!!

[old_pop2000]

Dennis your brilliant. Thanks to your simple little question I may have a new research project for the summer.

I contacted a UT alumnus that currently is at Colorado School of Mines and she looked in to a lacustrine (fresh water lake) analog to turbidite flows and their relationship to a local fault. She told me there is actually a name for what we are discussing, sisemites or sismo-tubidites. These three articles are first on my list to read.

Brilliant!!!

Congrats are in order. I am glad my simple question has led to something interesting for you. Possibly this could lead to even more. Someday you might be the turbidite-earthquake expert. I will be able to say that I remember Mike before he was the turbidite king. :D

Note: Here is another report that discusses using turbidites to examine past earthquakes off of southern Japan.

http://wwwsoc.nii.ac.jp/jepsjmo/cd-rom/2003cd-rom/pdf/j027/j027-004_e.pdf - this may be just an abstract

[old_pop2000]

Hey Kyle:
Would this be something that would interest you?

http://www.activetectonics.coas.oregonstate.edu/main_pages/turbidites/turbidites.html

They discuss the eruption of Mt. Mazama and the dating of ash found off of the coast in turbidites.

[Kyle Holgate]

Hey Kyle:
Would this be something that would interest you?

http://www.activetectonics.coas.oregonstate.edu/main_pages/turbidites/turbidites.html

They discuss the eruption of Mt. Mazama and the dating of ash found off of the coast in turbidites.

Verrrrry interesting. I would assume that they've compared cores taken at various locations - Columbia river canyon compared to Rogue river for example - to see if dates are matching up.
Mazama ash is frequently used for dating things - not necessarily precisely but you can tell if whatever it is predated or post dated the ash layer.

[Kyle Holgate]

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/special/California_Nevada.php

Earthquake prediction is still in the realm of reading tea leaves and crystal balls almost, but if I were inclined to predict - I would say that LA is due for something unpleasant soon. Now soon of course is relative, but in this case I mean soon in human terms - next few months.
I've been watching this page about daily for years - I have NEVER seen the San Andreas so active north and south of LA before. And then LA has virtually no quakes, meaning the fault is not slipping but is (to annoy Mike!) Locked. (:p)

[old_pop2000]

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/special/California_Nevada.php

Earthquake prediction is still in the realm of reading tea leaves and crystal balls almost, but if I were inclined to predict - I would say that LA is due for something unpleasant soon. Now soon of course is relative, but in this case I mean soon in human terms - next few months.
I've been watching this page about daily for years - I have NEVER seen the San Andreas so active north and south of LA before. And then LA has virtually no quakes, meaning the fault is not slipping but is (to annoy Mike!) Locked. (:p)

There is slippage on the that section, according to reports, but its the way the Garlock bends the fault, I suspect. There are indications the bend might take up that slippage. But you make a good point, because geologist are a little concerned.

[Kyle Holgate]

The way people are so Ho-Hum about the threat amazes me. You get people afraid to fly because the plane may crash. The odds of a plane crash are way less than the odds of an earthquake in the LA region in the next 10 years. You can't do anything about the plane (except not fly) but you could prepare for a quake a number of ways. No one up here is doing it, though the odds of a big one soon are less. Well, not no one I guess. People in general aren't taking it seriously but building and bridge codes have been changed at least.

[old_pop2000]

The way people are so Ho-Hum about the threat amazes me. You get people afraid to fly because the plane may crash. The odds of a plane crash are way less than the odds of an earthquake in the LA region in the next 10 years. You can't do anything about the plane (except not fly) but you could prepare for a quake a number of ways. No one up here is doing it, though the odds of a big one soon are less.

I can't disagree with you on those point. Years ago, I procured for free, the handbook on earthquake safety that is provided by the State of California. I've tried to follow each and every step. I have can goods stored away, fresh water enough for all for three days minimum. Items on the walls are secure, the water heaters secure. I have self protection equipment to guard the family. Tents, camping gear, gas stoves, wood etc. Special radio with a hand crank to maintain the batteries. Even food for the cat and a special container to protect the little fink.:D I certainly can't help the rest of the world. My son and I are going to get some MRE's and store them as back up. We have enough ammunition to hold off the Third Army.

[Kyle Holgate]

I can't disagree with you on those point. Years ago, I procured for free, the handbook on earthquake safety that is provided by the State of California. I've tried to follow each and every step. I have can goods stored away, fresh water enough for all for three days minimum. Items on the walls are secure, the water heaters secure. I have self protection equipment to guard the family. Tents, camping gear, gas stoves, wood etc. Special radio with a hand crank to maintain the batteries. Even food for the cat and a special container to protect the little fink.:D I certainly can't help the rest of the world. My son and I are going to get some MRE's and store them as back up. We have enough ammunition to hold off the Third Army.

I've been debating getting a handgun, I have a 410 shotgun and ammo that I can get ready to meet someone at the door in short order. I have much of my supply of stuff in my car, which is pretty much were I am or nearby always. That way if something happens while I'm at work, I'm not in too bad shape. I have more stuff at home stashed away and have a place for my critter (Gremlin) too. He's fat enough to live off of it for a while (and I have little room to talk I suppose) but everyone should be relatively survivable as long as we live through the quake itself.
I'm by far Way of the norm - most people don't even know how to turn off their natural gas, let alone have anything else prepared.

[old_pop2000]

I've been debating getting a handgun, I have a 410 shotgun and ammo that I can get ready to meet someone at the door in short order. I have much of my supply of stuff in my car, which is pretty much were I am or nearby always. That way if something happens while I'm at work, I'm not in too bad shape. I have more stuff at home stashed away and have a place for my critter (Gremlin) too. He's fat enough to live off of it for a while (and I have little room to talk I suppose) but everyone should be relatively survivable as long as we live through the quake itself.
I'm by far Way of the norm - most people don't even know how to turn off their natural gas, let alone have anything else prepared.

Well, it sounds like you have things well in hand. But then most of us who live in these areas and understand the dynamics and history of earthquakes are usually ahead of the game. As for the self protection, I guess I am paranoid, but I have to figure that some genius is going to exploit the situation as they did in the Northridge and LLoma Prieta earthquakes. I know that law enforcement probably would look unfavorably on that attitude. However, in the case of disaster, it might be every man for himself for awhile and I frankly am not going to leave the safety of my family to the good manners and attitudes of the jackasses we have around here. I can assure law enforcement that I and my family will act prudently and carefully. However, there will be very few if any, warning shots from this house. It will be fire for effect.

[Kyle Holgate]

I'm in a medium sized town and should get food and water aid fairly soon after a quake, but by golly if I'm going to share my stuff it's going to be on my terms not someone coming in and taking it. I would guess that I would be fairly generous as that's the way I am but anyone trying to get stuff or coming into my place without permission is in a jeopardy.
I had a drunk guy from the other apartment building accidently think my place was his - he came up, tried his keys then started to try kick the door in. I opened the door with the 410 leveled so as to give him a larger belly button. Needless to say he was most surprised. It was amusing in the end, but I thought someone was trying to break in.

Almost all homes are wood and tend to resist collapse. Its the old brick buildings in downtown areas that are toast. Even a measly 5.0 may shake some of them down, and the level of shaking Portland and Beaverton (where I live) can expect from a 9.0 off the coast is around what a local 6.5 or 7 would be as far as I've been able to tell. If it happens I really hope I'm on the freeway in my car somewhere not inside at work or home. I am not sure I trust either building to stay standing with more confidance than I'd expect to be able to ride it out bounding along in car.

[old_pop2000]

I'm in a medium sized town and should get food and water aid fairly soon after a quake, but by golly if I'm going to share my stuff it's going to be on my terms not someone coming in and taking it. I would guess that I would be fairly generous as that's the way I am but anyone trying to get stuff or coming into my place without permission is in a jeopardy.
I had a drunk guy from the other apartment building accidently think my place was his - he came up, tried his keys then started to try kick the door in. I opened the door with the 410 leveled so as to give him a larger belly button. Needless to say he was most surprised. It was amusing in the end, but I thought someone was trying to break in.

Almost all homes are wood and tend to resist collapse. Its the old brick buildings in downtown areas that are toast. Even a measly 5.0 may shake some of them down, and the level of shaking Portland and Beaverton (where I live) can expect from a 9.0 off the coast is around what a local 6.5 or 7 would be as far as I've been able to tell. If it happens I really hope I'm on the freeway in my car somewhere not inside at work or home. I am not sure I trust either building to stay standing with more confidance than I'd expect to be able to ride it out bounding along in car.

I live about 25 miles east of the main portion of San Diego. Being retired, I am home more, so I have the advantage. but, like you, I am generous. Within reason, I would help a family or families in the neighborhood to survive. However, as you stated, on my terms, not theirs. My son and I worked out the details. With our weapons, we have a kill zone starting out at 500 yards plus. Our last ditch defense is my wife and her broadsword and trust me, we have seen her in action with it. One viking descendent plus one broadsword is a nasty combination. :p

[Kyle Holgate]

I have a WW2 vintage Samurai sword my Grandpa relieved from some poor Japanese soul that has gone to his ancestors. It's sharp (I keep it that way, and don't use it in the kitchen) and though I have no Japanese blood in me would bet that I could do serious harm with it! Just on a whim one time when I was a kid I took it out and chopped a side of beef we had hanging in our cooler (we were on a farm) nearly in half. Got in some trouble for it from Dad who didn't appreciate my abilities as a meat cutter, but it did more damage than I expected!

Someone could easily beat me in firepower if they really wanted to come visit, though I'd be on the defensive which provides the upper hand. That's why I've been eyeing the old 45 pistols that have shown up in larger numbers since the 9mm came out. I was a very good shot with one in the Navy and may be rusty, but I've found that you don't forget how to shoot. I fired a surplus M14 a few years back and was still in marksman form if not expert as I was 20 some odd years back. I still like that weapon and would like to have one.

[keschofield]

Kyle, for home protection nothing beats a shotgun, albeit a decent gauge like a 12 guage. The 410 guage shotgun is a varmint hunting weapon. Against a man, the noise might startle him, but the shot will not take him down (with the exception of a lucky shot to the eyes).

Second choice would be a .45 auto (assuming the homeowner can handle the weight and recoil).

The most important requirement is for the psychological strength to use the weapon without hesitation. If you draw down on someone and that person is armed, you better make damn sure you fire first and hit your target. I'm sure that your military training taught you that.

Many people can afford to buy a shotgun or a pistol, but most have trouble with the latter requirement.

I grew up with guns and the proliferation of guns in the hands of people who can't handle them scares the living poop out of me. :(

[old_pop2000]

I have a WW2 vintage Samurai sword my Grandpa relieved from some poor Japanese soul that has gone to his ancestors. It's sharp (I keep it that way, and don't use it in the kitchen) and though I have no Japanese blood in me would bet that I could do serious harm with it! Just on a whim one time when I was a kid I took it out and chopped a side of beef we had hanging in our cooler (we were on a farm) nearly in half. Got in some trouble for it from Dad who didn't appreciate my abilities as a meat cutter, but it did more damage than I expected!

Someone could easily beat me in firepower if they really wanted to come visit, though I'd be on the defensive which provides the upper hand. That's why I've been eyeing the old 45 pistols that have shown up in larger numbers since the 9mm came out. I was a very good shot with one in the Navy and may be rusty, but I've found that you don't forget how to shoot. I fired a surplus M14 a few years back and was still in marksman form if not expert as I was 20 some odd years back. I still like that weapon and would like to have one.

My son has a couple of .45 cal ACP match guns. I have .40 S&W Auto and a German 9mm P38. I also have a short barrelled 12 gauge pump with extra rounds strapped to it. I am in the process of building an AR-15. I have the lower assy and a barrel. The receiver and stock are next. However, He also has a .300 Weatherby Magnum, G3 7.62 Nato three shotguns including a Benelli, A .357 Magnum pistol. The list goes on and on. I a good marksman but I really would not appreciate having shoot someone. Hopefully, it will never come to that.

[john964]

My son has a couple of .45 cal ACP match guns. I have .40 S&W Auto and a German 9mm P38. I also have a short barrelled 12 gauge pump with extra rounds strapped to it. I am in the process of building an AR-15. I have the lower assy and a barrel. The receiver and stock are next. However, He also has a .300 Weatherby Magnum, G3 7.62 Nato three shotguns including a Benelli, A .357 Magnum pistol. The list goes on and on. I a good marksman but I really would not appreciate having shoot someone. Hopefully, it will never come to that.
What no crew served weapons or morters.

[old_pop2000]

What no crew served weapons or morters.

Illegal in California, but a nice idea. :p

[old_pop2000]

Hmm! This is interesting.

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Man-skydives-into-volcano/ss/events/lf/042109volcanoskydive

[djcyclone]

Kyle, for home protection nothing beats a shotgun, albeit a decent gauge like a 12 guage. The 410 guage shotgun is a varmint hunting weapon. Against a man, the noise might startle him, but the shot will not take him down (with the exception of a lucky shot to the eyes).

Second choice would be a .45 auto (assuming the homeowner can handle the weight and recoil).

The most important requirement is for the psychological strength to use the weapon without hesitation. If you draw down on someone and that person is armed, you better make damn sure you fire first and hit your target. I'm sure that your military training taught you that.

Many people can afford to buy a shotgun or a pistol, but most have trouble with the latter requirement.

I grew up with guns and the proliferation of guns in the hands of people who can't handle them scares the living poop out of me. :(

I recieved my 20 guage choke Shotgun from my Grandfather. It is a model from around 1930 and was used by my Great Grandfather and my Grandfather to put rabbits on the table during the depression years. It breaks in half and only holds one shell at a time.

I took it to the nearby gunshop and asked what kind of ammunition they had that it could shoot. The owner asked me what I would be using it for, and I said well I do not hunt, so I guess it will be for home defense in the off shot of that happening (I live in a vary quiet town).

He gave me two boxes (all he had) of a 20 guage shell. It is Winchester Super X (2 3/4 IN - 3B 20 Pellets.

He indicated that this shell would put anything on the ground in one shot at close range. He called it maximum stopping power, and not a shell for hunting rabits or anything like that. So I only have one shot, but that is all I need in my small house. Not likely that anything would ever happen though.

[old_pop2000]

Hey Kyle:
It appears that the NW isn't the only place with Tsunami problems.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090421/sc_afp/sciencevolcanotsunamicaribbeanguadeloupe

[keschofield]

I recieved my 20 guage choke Shotgun from my Grandfather. It is a model from around 1930 and was used by my Great Grandfather and my Grandfather to put rabbits on the table during the depression years. It breaks in half and only holds one shell at a time.

I took it to the nearby gunshop and asked what kind of ammunition they had that it could shoot. The owner asked me what I would be using it for, and I said well I do not hunt, so I guess it will be for home defense in the off shot of that happening (I live in a vary quiet town).

He gave me two boxes (all he had) of a 20 guage shell. It is Winchester Super X (2 3/4 IN - 3B 20 Pellets.

He indicated that this shell would put anything on the ground in one shot at close range. He called it maximum stopping power, and not a shell for hunting rabits or anything like that. So I only have one shot, but that is all I need in my small house. Not likely that anything would ever happen though.

Yep, 20 guage will do the trick. Especially, like you say, at close range. Its an old guage that's not very popular anymore, but its heavy enough to get the job done.

[john964]

Yep, 20 guage will do the trick. Especially, like you say, at close range. Its an old guage that's not very popular anymore, but its heavy enough to get the job done.Another guage you don't see much is 10 guage shotgun.

[djcyclone]

Yep, 20 guage will do the trick. Especially, like you say, at close range. Its an old guage that's not very popular anymore, but its heavy enough to get the job done.


I promised my Grandfather that I would not sell it, as it does have a lot of value to the family.

I did look on the internet just to see how much it is worth (curiosity) and found out that it was worth next to nothing. When I bought the ammunition that I mentioned, I asked the gunshop owner and he indicated that there never was a high demand for that type of gun.

[Ed Rotondaro]

I can't disagree with you on those point. Years ago, I procured for free, the handbook on earthquake safety that is provided by the State of California. I've tried to follow each and every step. I have can goods stored away, fresh water enough for all for three days minimum. Items on the walls are secure, the water heaters secure. I have self protection equipment to guard the family. Tents, camping gear, gas stoves, wood etc. Special radio with a hand crank to maintain the batteries. Even food for the cat and a special container to protect the little fink.:D I certainly can't help the rest of the world. My son and I are going to get some MRE's and store them as back up. We have enough ammunition to hold off the Third Army.

Dennis:

I appreciate prepardness, but do you think that people living in the smaller towns would be at risk of say looters? The usual response in times of natural disasters has been one of pulling together to help out others (of course Katrina showed us what happens when inner city poor folks are given free rein to loot so maybe you're being smart).

[Ed Rotondaro]

I live about 25 miles east of the main portion of San Diego. Being retired, I am home more, so I have the advantage. but, like you, I am generous. Within reason, I would help a family or families in the neighborhood to survive. However, as you stated, on my terms, not theirs. My son and I worked out the details. With our weapons, we have a kill zone starting out at 500 yards plus. Our last ditch defense is my wife and her broadsword and trust me, we have seen her in action with it. One viking descendent plus one broadsword is a nasty combination. :p

Dennis:

You're wife has a broadsword? Post a picture as I fancy medieval weapons, especially swords.

[Ed Rotondaro]

I have a WW2 vintage Samurai sword my Grandpa relieved from some poor Japanese soul that has gone to his ancestors. It's sharp (I keep it that way, and don't use it in the kitchen) and though I have no Japanese blood in me would bet that I could do serious harm with it! Just on a whim one time when I was a kid I took it out and chopped a side of beef we had hanging in our cooler (we were on a farm) nearly in half. Got in some trouble for it from Dad who didn't appreciate my abilities as a meat cutter, but it did more damage than I expected!

Someone could easily beat me in firepower if they really wanted to come visit, though I'd be on the defensive which provides the upper hand. That's why I've been eyeing the old 45 pistols that have shown up in larger numbers since the 9mm came out. I was a very good shot with one in the Navy and may be rusty, but I've found that you don't forget how to shoot. I fired a surplus M14 a few years back and was still in marksman form if not expert as I was 20 some odd years back. I still like that weapon and would like to have one.

Kyle:

There are a lot of companies that do excellent refitting and upgrading on surplus .45s. You could make one as good as new if you wanted to.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

I appreciate prepardness, but do you think that people living in the smaller towns would be at risk of say looters? The usual response in times of natural disasters has been one of pulling together to help out others (of course Katrina showed us what happens when inner city poor folks are given free rein to loot so maybe you're being smart).

Ed:
After sixy two years on this earth, I've become jaded in my view of the world. You bet your sweet bibby. There is a rotten apple or two, in every barrel, no matter how small the barrel might seem. When a wide spread disaster occurs, it may take days for the normal law enforcement to reach everyone, especially in areas drained by many rivers. Bridges will be down, highways etc. Lack of transportation will hamper rescue and efforts to protect the populace. I am certain Mike M. can probably give us a better feel for the disaster plans for law enforcement. But remember, their structures and vehicles will be disabled also, so they will do their best.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

You're wife has a broadsword? Post a picture as I fancy medieval weapons, especially swords.

It belongs to my son, I will see if it is still on the wall.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Kyle, for home protection nothing beats a shotgun, albeit a decent gauge like a 12 guage. The 410 guage shotgun is a varmint hunting weapon. Against a man, the noise might startle him, but the shot will not take him down (with the exception of a lucky shot to the eyes).

Second choice would be a .45 auto (assuming the homeowner can handle the weight and recoil).

The most important requirement is for the psychological strength to use the weapon without hesitation. If you draw down on someone and that person is armed, you better make damn sure you fire first and hit your target. I'm sure that your military training taught you that.

Many people can afford to buy a shotgun or a pistol, but most have trouble with the latter requirement.

I grew up with guns and the proliferation of guns in the hands of people who can't handle them scares the living poop out of me. :(

Kurt:

Good points. I have had the chance to handle both .45s and various 9mms at gun shows and have always been surprised at how small the Colt is in comparison to the modern wonder 9mms. As far as recoil goes I've never fired either so I don't know which is more controllable. One thing that does scare about firearms is that people don't realize even a pistol round will penetrate your sheetrock walls and keep traveling on to maybe your neighbor's house. Gun control as they say begins between your ears (i.e. know what your doing and how to aim properly).

[old_pop2000]

Kurt:

Good points. I have had the chance to handle both .45s and various 9mms at gun shows and have always been surprised at how small the Colt is in comparison to the modern wonder 9mms. As far as recoil goes I've never fired either so I don't know which is more controllable. One thing that does scare about firearms is that people don't realize even a pistol round will penetrate your sheetrock walls and keep traveling on to maybe your neighbor's house. Gun control as they say begins between your ears (i.e. know what your doing and how to aim properly).

My son's .45 cal ACP match guns have a kick, but it's all in hand and trigger control. You have to squeeze the trigger to a certain point and not jerk it. It takes real practice. My .40 cal has a reasonably benign kick but still has a lot of velocity and kinetic energy for the target. It's about a 10mm in comparison, but more powerful;.

[Ed Rotondaro]

My son has a couple of .45 cal ACP match guns. I have .40 S&W Auto and a German 9mm P38. I also have a short barrelled 12 gauge pump with extra rounds strapped to it. I am in the process of building an AR-15. I have the lower assy and a barrel. The receiver and stock are next. However, He also has a .300 Weatherby Magnum, G3 7.62 Nato three shotguns including a Benelli, A .357 Magnum pistol. The list goes on and on. I a good marksman but I really would not appreciate having shoot someone. Hopefully, it will never come to that.

Dennis:

A .300 Weatherby magnum? Hell you could punch thru body armor with ease. That must kick like a mule. What's the magazine capacity on that rifle?

[Ed Rotondaro]

Hmm! This is interesting.

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Man-skydives-into-volcano/ss/events/lf/042109volcanoskydive


Dennis:

The article says the volcano is active and simmering. How could snow or ice form there?

[Ed Rotondaro]

I recieved my 20 guage choke Shotgun from my Grandfather. It is a model from around 1930 and was used by my Great Grandfather and my Grandfather to put rabbits on the table during the depression years. It breaks in half and only holds one shell at a time.

I took it to the nearby gunshop and asked what kind of ammunition they had that it could shoot. The owner asked me what I would be using it for, and I said well I do not hunt, so I guess it will be for home defense in the off shot of that happening (I live in a vary quiet town).

He gave me two boxes (all he had) of a 20 guage shell. It is Winchester Super X (2 3/4 IN - 3B 20 Pellets.

He indicated that this shell would put anything on the ground in one shot at close range. He called it maximum stopping power, and not a shell for hunting rabits or anything like that. So I only have one shot, but that is all I need in my small house. Not likely that anything would ever happen though.

DJ:

Is that double 0 buckshot?

[Ed Rotondaro]

Yep, 20 guage will do the trick. Especially, like you say, at close range. Its an old guage that's not very popular anymore, but its heavy enough to get the job done.

Kurt:

Used to be very popular for shooting small game birds like grouse and pheasant, especially in a side by side configuration.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Another guage you don't see much is 10 guage shotgun.

John:

A goose gun for sure since it has the range. There was a company that marketed one in the 1980s called the Roadblocker. Supposedly it would fracture an engine block if using slugs.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Ed:
After sixy two years on this earth, I've become jaded in my view of the world. You bet your sweet bibby. There is a rotten apple or two, in every barrel, no matter how small the barrel might seem. When a wide spread disaster occurs, it may take days for the normal law enforcement to reach everyone, especially in areas drained by many rivers. Bridges will be down, highways etc. Lack of transportation will hamper rescue and efforts to protect the populace. I am certain Mike M. can probably give us a better feel for the disaster plans for law enforcement. But remember, their structures and vehicles will be disabled also, so they will do their best.

Dennis:

I can appreciate that. Better to have the gun and not need it.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

A .300 Weatherby magnum? Hell you could punch thru body armor with ease. That must kick like a mule. What's the magazine capacity on that rifle?

I believe it uses 3 + 1, basically, three in the mag, one in the chamber. It can kill an elk or caribou out to five hundred yards. Uses a 220 grain bullet. Looking at a ballistic table, the 220 grain has an energy of 1184 ft-lbs at 500 yards. If you reduce the size of the bullet down to 180 grain, the energy rises to over 1852 ft-lbs. You can vary this with different bullet types and grainage. It's a hell of cannon.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

The article says the volcano is active and simmering. How could snow or ice form there?

The rim is always higher than the area where the lava dome is building, so snow could be on the top. This accounts for the terrible lahars, when the eruption occurs. The heat from the erupting magma melts the ice and the combination of hot ash and water, mostly water and steam comes flowing down the mountain at high speed. Not a pretty sight if you are in its way.

[Kyle Holgate]

Kyle, for home protection nothing beats a shotgun, albeit a decent gauge like a 12 guage. The 410 guage shotgun is a varmint hunting weapon. Against a man, the noise might startle him, but the shot will not take him down (with the exception of a lucky shot to the eyes).

Second choice would be a .45 auto (assuming the homeowner can handle the weight and recoil).

The most important requirement is for the psychological strength to use the weapon without hesitation. If you draw down on someone and that person is armed, you better make damn sure you fire first and hit your target. I'm sure that your military training taught you that.

Many people can afford to buy a shotgun or a pistol, but most have trouble with the latter requirement.

I grew up with guns and the proliferation of guns in the hands of people who can't handle them scares the living poop out of me. :(

At the ranges which I'm using it - it will make a very nice new hole in someone! I've shot plywood with it from over 10ft away and left a 1" hole (ish) in it. I can always load the slug rounds in it too, they are able to make nice holes in even thicker materials. I used to target practice with the gun (well, shoot at random stuff and make holes) when I was a kid growing up on the farm. It would easily kill a human with either round at 10-15 feet.
I don't intend to try to shoot at anyone at all, but if I did it would not be at 50 yards or something! It's purely for defensive purposes, to defend my home.

[Ed Rotondaro]

I believe it uses 3 + 1, basically, three in the mag, one in the chamber. It can kill an elk or caribou out to five hundred yards. Uses a 220 grain bullet. Looking at a ballistic table, the 220 grain has an energy of 1184 ft-lbs at 500 yards. If you reduce the size of the bullet down to 180 grain, the energy rises to over 1852 ft-lbs. You can vary this with different bullet types and grainage. It's a hell of cannon.

Dennis:

Heck you could probably drop a kodiak bear with a rifle like that. That would a hand loader's dream weapon with the differing loads you could devise for it.

[Ed Rotondaro]

The rim is always higher than the area where the lava dome is building, so snow could be on the top. This accounts for the terrible lahars, when the eruption occurs. The heat from the erupting magma melts the ice and the combination of hot ash and water, mostly water and steam comes flowing down the mountain at high speed. Not a pretty sight if you are in its way.

Dennis:

Thanks for the explanation. I still wouldn't ever consider parachuting into a volcano though.;)

[djcyclone]

DJ:

Is that double 0 buckshot?

What is a double 0 Buckshot?

It is a single barrel if that is what you mean. Just one shot, and then I have to break it in the middle and reload. It cannot fire Dear Slugs, since it is full choke.

The gun shop owner said a Dear Slug would probably blow the end of the barrel off.:eek:

[djcyclone]

Dennis:

Thanks for the explanation. I still wouldn't ever consider parachuting into a volcano though.;)


Well at least it would be a quick death.

[old_pop2000]

DJ:

Is that double 0 buckshot?

Buckshot is larger sized shot designed for large game. The smaller the number, the larger the shot or pellets. Double aught buckshot is .33" or 8.4mm with 8 pellets per oz.

[Kyle Holgate]

Well at least it would be a quick death.

I think people get an idea of what a volcano is from the pictures and films about everyone has seen from Hawaii. Big craters with seething lava lakes down in them and toxic fumes everywhere. Well, take it form someone that lives near an active volcano, your main hazard in parachuting into it would be not breaking your neck (which seems to be largely the case anywhere). Yeah, it would be a bit stinky with the hydrogen sulphide gas (rotten eggs smell) and the visibility could be a bit restricted from the steam but otherwise you're not dropping into a fry pan.
I'd love to be able to get up into the crater of St. Helens - but it's still closed off to the public. Scientists want to keep it all to themselves. :( I don't think I would parachute in though...

[old_pop2000]

I think people get an idea of what a volcano is from the pictures and films about everyone has seen from Hawaii. Big craters with seething lava lakes down in them and toxic fumes everywhere. Well, take it form someone that lives near an active volcano, your main hazard in parachuting into it would be not breaking your neck (which seems to be largely the case anywhere). Yeah, it would be a bit stinky with the hydrogen sulphide gas (rotten eggs smell) and the visibility could be a bit restricted from the steam but otherwise you're not dropping into a fry pan.
I'd love to be able to get up into the crater of St. Helens - but it's still closed off to the public. Scientists want to keep it all to themselves. :( I don't think I would parachute in though...

I agree, craggy rocks and such, might be your worse danger, not the gas or anything else. I wouldn't be doing it, unless it was extinct. Even then it might still be dangerous.

[Ed Rotondaro]

What is a double 0 Buckshot?

It is a single barrel if that is what you mean. Just one shot, and then I have to break it in the middle and reload. It cannot fire Dear Slugs, since it is full choke.

The gun shop owner said a Dear Slug would probably blow the end of the barrel off.:eek:

DJ:

Double O buckshot are .32 caliber pellets that are the primary anti-personnel load for most .12 gauge shot guns. I believe there are a dozen pellets in a standard .12 gauge shell. I don't know if the magnum shells contain more. But at close range, nothing is deadlier than buckshot. No less an authority than George Washington recommended that his troops use it at close ranges.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Buckshot is larger sized shot designed for large game. The smaller the number, the larger the shot or pellets. Double aught buckshot is .33" or 8.4mm with 8 pellets per oz.

Dennis:

What is the temprature of magma or lava? Is it hotter than say molten steel?

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

What is the temprature of magma or lava? Is it hotter than say molten steel?


Ed:
It depends on the types of rocks in the lava. However, it ranges from 1000 degrees to 1200 degrees. Temperature estimates and readings from Vesuvius, Stromboli, Kilauea etc. vary that much. On average, rhyolitic lavas have a lower temperature than basaltic lavas due to the chemical make up of rhyolites. However, temperature readings are difficult to get. Readings from Hawaii in the same flow, indicate differences between 750 to 1200 degrees. Studies have shown that some basaltic lavas have molten temperatures as low at 875 degrees. Maybe Kyle and Mike D have more, pertinent data. I can get more scientific data from studies.

As to your comparison, steel melts at 2777 degrees.

[old_pop2000]

Welcome to the club, Ohio. You had an earthquake at 9:42 am near Oak Hill, Ohio, a 3.4. Small by comparison to us, however it was an earthquake. :p

[Ed Rotondaro]

Ed:
It depends on the types of rocks in the lava. However, it ranges from 1000 degrees to 1200 degrees. Temperature estimates and readings from Vesuvius, Stromboli, Kilauea etc. vary that much. On average, rhyolitic lavas have a lower temperature than basaltic lavas due to the chemical make up of rhyolites. However, temperature readings are difficult to get. Readings from Hawaii in the same flow, indicate differences between 750 to 1200 degrees. Studies have shown that some basaltic lavas have molten temperatures as low at 875 degrees. Maybe Kyle and Mike D have more, pertinent data. I can get more scientific data from studies.

As to your comparison, steel melts at 2777 degrees.

Dennis:

There are very few things as awe inspiring as watching a lava flow. A river of molten rock bright red/orange that could incinerate just about anything. We just live on this planet, Mother Earth is still the boss.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Welcome to the club, Ohio. You had an earthquake at 9:42 am near Oak Hill, Ohio, a 3.4. Small by comparison to us, however it was an earthquake. :p

Dennis:

Would that be from the same fault that caused the famous earthquake in Missouri that made the rivers flow backwards for a short time?

[Mike D]

Ed:
It depends on the types of rocks in the lava. However, it ranges from 1000 degrees to 1200 degrees. Temperature estimates and readings from Vesuvius, Stromboli, Kilauea etc. vary that much. On average, rhyolitic lavas have a lower temperature than basaltic lavas due to the chemical make up of rhyolites. However, temperature readings are difficult to get. Readings from Hawaii in the same flow, indicate differences between 750 to 1200 degrees. Studies have shown that some basaltic lavas have molten temperatures as low at 875 degrees. Maybe Kyle and Mike D have more, pertinent data. I can get more scientific data from studies.

As to your comparison, steel melts at 2777 degrees.

Dennis is right, it depends on type of lava or magma, location, water content, pressure, bulk compsition, number of components, etc. It like asking how hot is pizza; frozen pizza, pizza in the oven, last nights pizza you just set on, etc. So a fair range is from 750 degrees C to around 2200 degrees C. So about 1380-4000 degrees F. But most melts average around two temperatures; 1274 degrees C and 1543 degrees C. These are temperatures of magmatic melts down deep in the magma chamber.

Lavas tend towards the lower end. (Remember lava is magma after its come out of the ground so it will always be cooler.) I guess you could probably really say that lava ranges from ambient temperature up to the partial melt temperature for that kind of lava; around 1500 degrees C.

I'll throw something out, this is something very very very very important in geology and especially igneous and metamorphic geology. Bowens Reaction Series (http://jersey.uoregon.edu/%7Emstrick/AskGeoMan/geoQuerry32.html) and here (http://csmres.jmu.edu/geollab/fichter/IgnRx/magmatyp.html) and here (http://csmres.jmu.edu/geollab/fichter/IgnRx/magmatyp.html). As magma and lava cools mineral begin to crystallize out of the melt. This happens in a specific and predictable pattern and geologists can use it as a rule of thumb thermometer for ranges from about 1800 to 600 degrees C. So if I look at a rock and I see it has a bit of Pyroxene, a lot of Amphibole, some Biotite and a bit of pink K(potassium)-Feldspar I can tell you a tempreture history for that part of the melt. If you see temperatures listed on a Bowens series chart take it with a grain of salt because the temperature of crystallization varies with pressure, liquidus composition and water. But in this example I can estimate that the melt was about 1150 degrees and slowly cooled down to about 700 degrees C then 'froze' or cooled down very fast. Just by looking at the mineral composition, I can even hazard a guess at the proportion of time spent at each tempreture range based on crystal size and how well formed (euhedral) or poorly formed (anhedral) the crystals are.

For your comparison elemental (pure) Iron melts at about 1530 degrees C and boils at 2862 degrees C. A generic steel melts at around 1150 degrees C and boils at about 2900 degrees C.

Ok, maybe more then you wanted to know.

[Kyle Holgate]

Being something of a volcano geek - here is a website that lets you fiddle around with melting points of rock - the effect of pressure and dissolved water, etc.

http://www.learner.org/interactives/volcanoes/activty1/tempmain.html

[old_pop2000]

Being something of a volcano geek - here is a website that lets you fiddle around with melting points of rock - the effect of pressure and dissolved water, etc.

http://www.learner.org/interactives/volcanoes/activty1/tempmain.html

Hey Kyle:
You and I are having waaaay too much fun playing this stuff. That's a cool site.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis is right, it depends on type of lava or magma, location, water content, pressure, bulk compsition, number of components, etc. It like asking how hot is pizza; frozen pizza, pizza in the oven, last nights pizza you just set on, etc. So a fair range is from 750 degrees C to around 2200 degrees C. So about 1380-4000 degrees F. But most melts average around two temperatures; 1274 degrees C and 1543 degrees C. These are temperatures of magmatic melts down deep in the magma chamber.

Lavas tend towards the lower end. (Remember lava is magma after its come out of the ground so it will always be cooler.) I guess you could probably really say that lava ranges from ambient temperature up to the partial melt temperature for that kind of lava; around 1500 degrees C.

I'll throw something out, this is something very very very very important in geology and especially igneous and metamorphic geology. Bowens Reaction Series (http://jersey.uoregon.edu/%7Emstrick/AskGeoMan/geoQuerry32.html) and here (http://csmres.jmu.edu/geollab/fichter/IgnRx/magmatyp.html) and here (http://csmres.jmu.edu/geollab/fichter/IgnRx/magmatyp.html). As magma and lava cools mineral begin to crystallize out of the melt. This happens in a specific and predictable pattern and geologists can use it as a rule of thumb thermometer for ranges from about 1800 to 600 degrees C. So if I look at a rock and I see it has a bit of Pyroxene, a lot of Amphibole, some Biotite and a bit of pink K(potassium)-Feldspar I can tell you a tempreture history for that part of the melt. If you see temperatures listed on a Bowens series chart take it with a grain of salt because the temperature of crystallization varies with pressure, liquidus composition and water. But in this example I can estimate that the melt was about 1150 degrees and slowly cooled down to about 700 degrees C then 'froze' or cooled down very fast. Just by looking at the mineral composition, I can even hazard a guess at the proportion of time spent at each tempreture range based on crystal size and how well formed (euhedral) or poorly formed (anhedral) the crystals are.

For your comparison elemental (pure) Iron melts at about 1530 degrees C and boils at 2862 degrees C. A generic steel melts at around 1150 degrees C and boils at about 2900 degrees C.

Ok, maybe more then you wanted to know.

Thank you. I will read all of that stuff and try to understand this better. This getting to be great fun. Now if there was just a volcano near me, rats:p

[john964]

Thank you. I will read all of that stuff and try to understand this better. This getting to be great fun. Now if there was just a volcano near me, rats:p
There are several in California, namely Mt Lassen and Mt Shasta. Though they are both in nortern California.

[old_pop2000]

There are several in California, namely Mt Lassen and Mt Shasta. Though they are both in nortern California.

Actually, there is the Cinder Cone Lava Beds out in the Mojave Desert. near Baker. Baker is east of Barstow. I've been there and actually have some material from the area in my yard. It's in the Cima Volcanic Field.

I just wanted an active one, something that would go BOOOM!

[Mike D]

Being something of a volcano geek - here is a website that lets you fiddle around with melting points of rock - the effect of pressure and dissolved water, etc.

http://www.learner.org/interactives/volcanoes/activty1/tempmain.html

Thats BRILLIANT!

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

Would that be from the same fault that caused the famous earthquake in Missouri that made the rivers flow backwards for a short time?

I am not certain. The New Madrid Rift Zone stretches from New Madrid, Missouri down into NW Tennessee then SW into Jonesboro Arkansas. The earthquake was center at SE Ohio. That's over 500 miles easily from the main area of the New Madrid Rift Zone. USGS says there is isn't much seismicity historically. Soooo, I am going to say, they aren't related.

Sorry, I missed this post earlier. :(

[old_pop2000]

Thats BRILLIANT!

Yea, that's what I said. I bookmarked the higher link to get to all of that stuff.

Cool. :p

[Mike D]

Thank you. I will read all of that stuff and try to understand this better. This getting to be great fun. Now if there was just a volcano near me, rats:p

Dennis as your getting seriously geeky on this, a book to think about is 'An Introduction to Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology' by John D. Winter. Its currently the best book on this topic. It expensive, about $125 new, but I've seem it on the web used for around $30. Its huge, 700 pages, but I have mine marked up with stickers and flags it looks a mess. But I refer back to it all the time.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis as your getting seriously geeky on this, a book to think about is 'An Introduction to Igneous and Metamorphic Petrology' by John D. Winter. Its currently the best book on this topic. It expensive, about $125 new, but I've seem it on the web used for around $30. Its huge, 700 pages, but I have mine marked up with stickers and flags it looks a mess. But I refer back to it all the time.

I've seen that book advertised in used book stores. Is the CD media etc. necessary or can I just get a used textbook and still get the meat of the matter?

BTW, I am looking to expand my section on ancient Native Americans and their ancestry, including information on spear and arrowhead points. If you have anyone with good ideas or simple books for us old people. A local Native American Museum asked me to be a docent on Ancient Native American weaponry, pottery and lifestyle and I want to extend my knowledge. Accuracy is important.

As always, great information. Sorry for missing this post.

Why don't you start a blog, if you have a summer research project to keep people informed of how the project is progressing, I would be interested to read it.

[old_pop2000]

Dinosaurs Lived in the Arctic

Interesting idea, dinosaurs above the Arctic Circle.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/dinosaurslivedinthearctic

[djcyclone]

According to the Alien Vs. Preditor movie, there are satalite immages of buildings under the ice in Antartica.

Now I don't know if that was completley made up by the movie writers, or if they just used some actual facts to tie their movie together.

If there are structures under the ice, then that would say that the Earth was on a different axis at one time and the land in Antartica was actually able to be lived on.

[Christian Schwietzke]

According to the Alien Vs. Preditor movie, there are satalite immages of buildings under the ice in Antartica.

Now I don't know if that was completley made up by the movie writers, or if they just used some actual facts to tie their movie together.

If there are structures under the ice, then that would say that the Earth was on a different axis at one time and the land in Antartica was actually able to be lived on.

This is Aliens vs Predator we are talking about. I think you can safely assume that they made this stuff up. It´s been millions of years - many millions - since Antarctica has been in a place with a warmer climate.

[old_pop2000]

This is Aliens vs Predator we are talking about. I think you can safely assume that they made this stuff up. It´s been millions of years - many millions - since Antarctica has been in a place with a warmer climate.

About 400 million years ago, then it started its southward trip.

[Mike D]

I've seen that book advertised in used book stores. Is the CD media etc. necessary or can I just get a used textbook and still get the meat of the matter?

Why don't you start a blog, if you have a summer research project to keep people informed of how the project is progressing, I would be interested to read it.

The CD is a waste, something the publisher put in to jack up the price.

You know I may stat a blog, good idea. Although my current research has nothing to do with geology but I guess that can be considered diversity.

[Mike D]

According to the Alien Vs. Preditor movie, there are satalite immages of buildings under the ice in Antartica.

Now I don't know if that was completley made up by the movie writers, or if they just used some actual facts to tie their movie together.

If there are structures under the ice, then that would say that the Earth was on a different axis at one time and the land in Antartica was actually able to be lived on.

Yeah, I think that you can pretty much count out anything from Hollywood. Here is a pretty good animation of the continents in motion.http://bio1100.nicerweb.com/Locked/media/lab/plate/

[old_pop2000]

Mike:
Have you seen any research papers and such, on new subsurface evidence that the Nile might have run across the Sahara toward the Nile? Does that sound plausible?

[Mike D]

Mike:
Have you seen any research papers and such, on new subsurface evidence that the Nile might have run across the Sahara toward the Nile? Does that sound plausible?

Nooo.... but that said. I remember an article where satellite based ground penetrating radar found a river bed in the Sahara no one knew about but that's all the detail I remember. I'll look for it. May be related.

Quick look found a couple of articles on a paleo Trans-African drainage system.

Try these links and see if I did it right.

https://webspace.utexas.edu/mjd576/Public/i0091-7613-17-8-743.pdf
https://webspace.utexas.edu/mjd576/Public/04072513.pdf

[old_pop2000]

Nooo.... but that said. I remember an article where satellite based ground penetrating radar found a river bed in the Sahara no one knew about but that's all the detail I remember. I'll look for it. May be related.

Quick look found a couple of articles on a paleo Trans-African drainage system.

Try these links and see if I did it right.

https://webspace.utexas.edu/mjd576/Public/i0091-7613-17-8-743.pdf
https://webspace.utexas.edu/mjd576/Public/04072513.pdf


Great articles. I'll read those tomorrow when I am awake and alert. Thanks, mate.:D

[old_pop2000]

When it rains, it pours. First Drug Wars, Swine Flu, now a 6.0 earthquake. Bad things come in three's.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_mexico_earthquake

[Kyle Holgate]

The customer I'm working with today and I were just talking about how a flu outbreak could smash any economic recovery. If people over react (and they will) and start to stay home more and not travel the economy will go south rather quickly.
The death rate on the flu in Mexico is less than 2%. Not that I want to catch the "bug" but the odds aren't horrible there. The US cases so far have been much milder, acting more like the "normal" flu. Once again - risk of death in driving the car to work is probably worse than being killed by the US strain of the H1N1 "bug" - and people don't think twice about driving (or speeding or running red lights).

I wonder what a major earthquake badly damaging a US city like LA or San Francisco would do to the economy. All the reconstruction that would be required would put a lot of people to work, but I don't know overall how the US economy would be impacted.

[old_pop2000]

....
I wonder what a major earthquake badly damaging a US city like LA or San Francisco would do to the economy. All the reconstruction that would be required would put a lot of people to work, but I don't know overall how the US economy would be impacted.

Knowing the government as I do, there is probably a thousand reports, updated yearly about the effects of a natural or otherwise, disaster on a major city or region. Associated with the report will be an economic impact report citing how the economy would be positively and negatively affected. Just search the internet, if you are so inclined. ;) The government lives for reports and impact statements.

[john964]

The customer I'm working with today and I were just talking about how a flu outbreak could smash any economic recovery. If people over react (and they will) and start to stay home more and not travel the economy will go south rather quickly.
The death rate on the flu in Mexico is less than 2%. Not that I want to catch the "bug" but the odds aren't horrible there. The US cases so far have been much milder, acting more like the "normal" flu. Once again - risk of death in driving the car to work is probably worse than being killed by the US strain of the H1N1 "bug" - and people don't think twice about driving (or speeding or running red lights).

I wonder what a major earthquake badly damaging a US city like LA or San Francisco would do to the economy. All the reconstruction that would be required would put a lot of people to work, but I don't know overall how the US economy would be impacted.
Kyle, You don't want the H1N1 virus out there it is better known as the spanish flu and that one killed 20-120 million people world wide from March 1918 to June 1920. Wiki "1918 Pandemic" for more information.

[Mike Malanaphy]

When it rains, it pours. First Drug Wars, Swine Flu, now a 6.0 earthquake. Bad things come in three's.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_mexico_earthquake


Hi Dennis,

Stumbled across this article. I was totally unaware that the largest volcanic eruption in the 20th Century occurred in Alaska in 1912. 3 times more powerful than Pinatubo and 30 times more powerful than Mt St Helens.

http://geology.com/novarupta/

[old_pop2000]

Hi Dennis,

Stumbled across this article. I was totally unaware that the largest volcanic eruption in the 20th Century occurred in Alaska in 1912. 3 times more powerful than Pinatubo and 30 times more powerful than Mt St Helens.

http://geology.com/novarupta/


I remember reading about that eruption. Luckily, it was uninhabited. Interesting. Thanks for the link.

Everything ok with you, mate?

[Mike Malanaphy]

I remember reading about that eruption. Luckily, it was uninhabited. Interesting. Thanks for the link.

Everything ok with you, mate?


Hi Denis,

Just fine, just back from a week in Hawaii.

[Kyle Holgate]

The Novarupta volcano - valley of 10,000 smokes? I knew it was the biggest in the 20th century, but I didn't know how it really compares to Pinatubo or others.

From what I know of the flu - the one that is currently starting to spread is different than the one that caused the 1918 pandemic. Not that the current one is anything to mess with. Reports are that it's hitting healthy 20-30 something aged people very hard which is alarming. From reading yesterday - two possibilities: 1 is that the current flu vaccine provides some protection so older people who get vaccinated are somewhat protected. The other option is very bad - the virus is so new to the immune system that it uses a nuke (immune system wise) and kills the host along with the virus by filling the lungs with fluid.
I wonder if this isn't a genetic response. If a human gets something so unknown then the immune system kills the person - limiting the spread of the disease. No consolation to the person that has it, but it would tend to help limit spread.

I have hated flu shots since I was in the Navy. They always made me sick for a day or two. Still, rather have a shot then play Russian Roulette with the H1N1 critter.

[john964]

The Novarupta volcano - valley of 10,000 smokes? I knew it was the biggest in the 20th century, but I didn't know how it really compares to Pinatubo or others.

From what I know of the flu - the one that is currently starting to spread is different than the one that caused the 1918 pandemic.

Reports are that it's hitting healthy 20-30 something aged people very hard which is alarming.

From reading yesterday - two possibilities: 1 is that the current flu vaccine provides some protection so older people who get vaccinated are somewhat protected.

The other option is very bad - the virus is so new to the immune system that it uses a nuke (immune system wise) and kills the host along with the virus by filling the lungs with fluid.
I wonder if this isn't a genetic response. If a human gets something so unknown then the immune system kills the person - limiting the spread of the disease. No consolation to the person that has it, but it would tend to help limit spread.

I have hated flu shots since I was in the Navy. They always made me sick for a day or two. Still, rather have a shot then play Russian Roulette with the H1N1 critter.

Kyle my reading on this flu strain is that the seasonal flu shots give either no or very limited protection.

What you are discribing is a 'Cyklon storm' which was the killing mechanisium of the 1918 pandemic.

I have always hated shots when I was in boot camp, I fainted right after the first injections and the SOB's nailed me for the rest when I was out cold.

[old_pop2000]

Kyle my reading on this flu strain is that the seasonal flu shots give either no or very limited protection.

What you are discribing is a 'Cyklon storm' which was the killing mechanisium of the 1918 pandemic.

I have always hated shots when I was in boot camp, I fainted right after the first injections and the SOB's nailed me for the rest when I was out cold.


When I got my shots at Lackland, they used guns with a V shaped needle. We had to get shots for Vietnam also, which made most people sick. I swear I got a shot for every known pathogen in Southeast Asia.

[djcyclone]

I avoid getting shots, but not because I am afraid of them or anything. I remember when I was a kid, they thought I had Diabetes, and they made me do a whole day of blood test.

I must have gotten 20 or 30 shots that day, and I watched everyone of them. I had to switch arms about every 4th or 5th shot because it started to hurt so bad that I couldn't stand it.

Anyway, I do not get the flu shot now because of that scare they had a few years ago. Back when they had the shortage of flu shots. I am only 26, and I hardly ever get sick, so I figure it is best to save those shots for the elderly who are more vulnerable to the flue.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Dinosaurs Lived in the Arctic

Interesting idea, dinosaurs above the Arctic Circle.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/dinosaurslivedinthearctic




Dennis:

Now that is an interesting discovery.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Hi Denis,

Just fine, just back from a week in Hawaii.

Mike:

You lucky bum! Hope you had a good time.

[Ed Rotondaro]

The Novarupta volcano - valley of 10,000 smokes? I knew it was the biggest in the 20th century, but I didn't know how it really compares to Pinatubo or others.

From what I know of the flu - the one that is currently starting to spread is different than the one that caused the 1918 pandemic. Not that the current one is anything to mess with. Reports are that it's hitting healthy 20-30 something aged people very hard which is alarming. From reading yesterday - two possibilities: 1 is that the current flu vaccine provides some protection so older people who get vaccinated are somewhat protected. The other option is very bad - the virus is so new to the immune system that it uses a nuke (immune system wise) and kills the host along with the virus by filling the lungs with fluid.
I wonder if this isn't a genetic response. If a human gets something so unknown then the immune system kills the person - limiting the spread of the disease. No consolation to the person that has it, but it would tend to help limit spread.

I have hated flu shots since I was in the Navy. They always made me sick for a day or two. Still, rather have a shot then play Russian Roulette with the H1N1 critter.

Kyle:

The newest vaccines are made with "killed viruses", so it is rare for a person to get ill from the shot these days. I always get the shot in early November. So far the US experience has not been as severe as in Mexico, but who needs a flu outbreak in the spring of all times? I should have know that we would pay for having a relatively mild flu season this year.

[old_pop2000]

Hi Denis,

Just fine, just back from a week in Hawaii.

Hawaii? Hmmm!! Well that's good, nothing like a week away to refocus. Hope you had a good time.

[Kyle Holgate]

I avoid getting shots, but not because I am afraid of them or anything. I remember when I was a kid, they thought I had Diabetes, and they made me do a whole day of blood test.

I must have gotten 20 or 30 shots that day, and I watched everyone of them. I had to switch arms about every 4th or 5th shot because it started to hurt so bad that I couldn't stand it.

Anyway, I do not get the flu shot now because of that scare they had a few years ago. Back when they had the shortage of flu shots. I am only 26, and I hardly ever get sick, so I figure it is best to save those shots for the elderly who are more vulnerable to the flue.

Trouble is - you're just the sort that the flu is killing in Mexico. That healthy immune system that keeps you from getting sick.
I'm following this as well as I can - and find it interesting that they still don't quite know why the Mexican cases appear to be so nasty compared to those so far in the US. Maybe some other factor is involved like the lousy air quality in Mexico city? Maybe we'll find out.

[john964]

Trouble is - you're just the sort that the flu is killing in Mexico. That healthy immune system that keeps you from getting sick.
I'm following this as well as I can - and find it interesting that they still don't quite know why the Mexican cases appear to be so nasty compared to those so far in the US. Maybe some other factor is involved like the lousy air quality in Mexico city? Maybe we'll find out.Kyle you may have a point. In Mexico there is a marked difference in the quality of health care. If you are upper middle class and above you can affored access to better quality health care. For those that can not affored bribes and squeeze or access to good hospitals you are going to get lower quality care or maybe counterfit drugs or personel with suspect training.

[Kyle Holgate]

Things are still pretty active - though only little events for the most part are showing. I note that compared to last week and before there is a bit more activity in the "gap" that was showing up roughly around where LA is. Not sure if this is a good thing or not - it's a thing.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/special/California_Nevada.php

[keschofield]

:D
Things are still pretty active - though only little events for the most part are showing. I note that compared to last week and before there is a bit more activity in the "gap" that was showing up roughly around where LA is. Not sure if this is a good thing or not - it's a thing.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/special/California_Nevada.php

Some of us northern Californians have always thought that there were several "gaps" around LA - including the one between fantasy and reality. :D

Of course, we all know that San Diego and its environs is as firmly grounded in reality as my old Bay Area home! Right Dennis? :D

[old_pop2000]

Some of us northern Californians have always thought that there were several "gaps" around LA - including the one between fantasy and reality. :D

Of course, we all know that San Diego and its environs is as firmly grounded in reality as my old Bay Area home! Right Dennis?
Weeeeelllllllll! Let's not stretch the truth too far for San Diego. I still believe that California is the land of fruits and nuts. San Diego is just an oversized nut farm. I almost got hit by two of them on my way to my mothers. One girl putting her makeup on in the car, going 80mph(she passed me, and I had my autopilot on, set for 70) and another, a girl, reading a paper. Same place, same speed.

BTW, in the first incident, the makeup wasn't helping.;):D:D

[keschofield]

Weeeeelllllllll! Let's not stretch the truth too far for San Diego. I still believe that California is the land of fruits and nuts. San Diego is just an oversized nut farm. I almost got hit by two of them on my way to my mothers. One girl putting her makeup on in the car, going 80mph(she passed me, and I had my autopilot on, set for 70) and another, a girl, reading a paper. Same place, same speed.

BTW, in the first incident, the makeup wasn't helping.;):D:D

Its not that different here in Atlanta during rush hour. I avoid it like the plague when I set my appointments but sometimes its unavoidable. Saw a guy the other day (going 70mph!) with papers propped up on the steering wheel, one hand holding a cell phone, and the other holding a cup of coffee! I assume he was steering with his knees.

Boy am I glad that my big old Mercury is a rolling tank and twice the size of everything on the road except Hummers and large SUVs. :eek:

[Kyle Holgate]

I always wanted to get one of those 6 wheeled (or 4, the ones with 6 are cooler looking though) armored cars and have a good sized anodized chamber put in and a flame-thrower like pump added so I can fire whatever liquid is in the tank. Then I'd fill it up down at the nearest dairy with the "honey water" which is slurry of cow poop and water.
Someone cuts me off... surprise! I'd imagine just swinging the turret around may do enough though, but what fun is that?

[djcyclone]

I will settle for a Dodge Ram Pickup Truck. I have Push Bars + Grill Gard on the front. Roll Bars in the back, with Side Rails along the side of the bed. I also have Tail Light Covers and Step up Bars.

That push bar is no joke. I spun out on some ice back in 2006 and litterally bounced off of a guard rail doing 30 MPH. It bent the Push Bar a little, but if had not had that Push Bar, the front of my truck would have been all over the road.

The Push Bar absorbed all of the impact, and there was vary little damage to my truck. Just lifted the hood up a little on one side.

I get so frustrated when I get behind people that want to go 10 MPH slower than the Speed Limit. You think it is bad when they go really fast, try driving down a two lane highway and two cars are driving 45 MPH in the Left and Right Lane when the speed limit is 55 or 60. Just driving right beside eachother like they are in a Senior Citizen Drag Race.

I am so tempted to just floor it and push them out of the way with that push bar, as it would not even phase my truck, but that is illiegal, so I have to just tag along. Old People need to stop taking their Cars For a walk.

If you are afraid to drive, (STAY HOME)

[john964]

Its not that different here in Atlanta during rush hour. I avoid it like the plague when I set my appointments but sometimes its unavoidable. Saw a guy the other day (going 70mph!) with papers propped up on the steering wheel, one hand holding a cell phone, and the other holding a cup of coffee! I assume he was steering with his knees.

Boy am I glad that my big old Mercury is a rolling tank and twice the size of everything on the road except Hummers and large SUVs. :eek:The same here in Spokane just this morning I witnessed a whitless wonder eating a bowl of cereral and last week I saw some lady having a blonde moment by "blow drying" her hair by sticking it out the window and brushing it as she drove.

[old_pop2000]

I will settle for a Dodge Ram Pickup Truck. I have Push Bars + Grill Gard on the front. Roll Bars in the back, with Side Rails along the side of the bed. I also have Tail Light Covers and Step up Bars.

That push bar is no joke. I spun out on some ice back in 2006 and litterally bounced off of a guard rail doing 30 MPH. It bent the Push Bar a little, but if had not had that Push Bar, the front of my truck would have been all over the road.

The Push Bar absorbed all of the impact, and there was vary little damage to my truck. Just lifted the hood up a little on one side.

I get so frustrated when I get behind people that want to go 10 MPH slower than the Speed Limit. You think it is bad when they go really fast, try driving down a two lane highway and two cars are driving 45 MPH in the Left and Right Lane when the speed limit is 55 or 60. Just driving right beside eachother like they are in a Senior Citizen Drag Race.

I am so tempted to just floor it and push them out of the way with that push bar, as it would not even phase my truck, but that is illiegal, so I have to just tag along. Old People need to stop taking their Cars For a walk.

If you are afraid to drive, (STAY HOME)

Careful what you say about seniors and old people, Ace.:p This old person has a favorite saying: Time to kick the tires and light the fires!

One problem in San Diego is the mass transit system sucks. Old people really have no way to get around without cabs, shuttles and cars. My mother is 84, still drives the old buick and heaven help you, if you get in front of her. :p

[Ed Rotondaro]

Weeeeelllllllll! Let's not stretch the truth too far for San Diego. I still believe that California is the land of fruits and nuts. San Diego is just an oversized nut farm. I almost got hit by two of them on my way to my mothers. One girl putting her makeup on in the car, going 80mph(she passed me, and I had my autopilot on, set for 70) and another, a girl, reading a paper. Same place, same speed.

BTW, in the first incident, the makeup wasn't helping.;):D:D

There was no good reason for giving women the right to drive in my opinion.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Its not that different here in Atlanta during rush hour. I avoid it like the plague when I set my appointments but sometimes its unavoidable. Saw a guy the other day (going 70mph!) with papers propped up on the steering wheel, one hand holding a cell phone, and the other holding a cup of coffee! I assume he was steering with his knees.

Boy am I glad that my big old Mercury is a rolling tank and twice the size of everything on the road except Hummers and large SUVs. :eek:

Kurt:

These are the days when I wish commuter railroads were still commonplace.

[Ed Rotondaro]

I always wanted to get one of those 6 wheeled (or 4, the ones with 6 are cooler looking though) armored cars and have a good sized anodized chamber put in and a flame-thrower like pump added so I can fire whatever liquid is in the tank. Then I'd fill it up down at the nearest dairy with the "honey water" which is slurry of cow poop and water.
Someone cuts me off... surprise! I'd imagine just swinging the turret around may do enough though, but what fun is that?

Kyle:

You scare me sometimes!:D

[Ed Rotondaro]

I Old People need to stop taking their Cars For a walk.

If you are afraid to drive, (STAY HOME)

DJ:

Good quote!

[keschofield]

I will settle for a Dodge Ram Pickup Truck. I have Push Bars + Grill Gard on the front. Roll Bars in the back, with Side Rails along the side of the bed. I also have Tail Light Covers and Step up Bars.

That push bar is no joke. I spun out on some ice back in 2006 and litterally bounced off of a guard rail doing 30 MPH. It bent the Push Bar a little, but if had not had that Push Bar, the front of my truck would have been all over the road.

The Push Bar absorbed all of the impact, and there was vary little damage to my truck. Just lifted the hood up a little on one side.

I get so frustrated when I get behind people that want to go 10 MPH slower than the Speed Limit. You think it is bad when they go really fast, try driving down a two lane highway and two cars are driving 45 MPH in the Left and Right Lane when the speed limit is 55 or 60. Just driving right beside eachother like they are in a Senior Citizen Drag Race.

I am so tempted to just floor it and push them out of the way with that push bar, as it would not even phase my truck, but that is illiegal, so I have to just tag along. Old People need to stop taking their Cars For a walk.

If you are afraid to drive, (STAY HOME)

Watch out or the Gray Panthers will get you. :D This old person gets just as frustrated as you do at the same things. However, one thing to keep in mind is a scene from some movie whose name escapes me - Middle aged woman heads for a parking place in a crowded parking lot. Car full of young girls cuts in front of her and takes the spot. They yell, "Face it lady, we're younger and faster". Middle aged woman lines up her car with theirs and smashes it out of the spot and yells back, "Face it girls, I'm older and have more insurance".

Seriously though, the left lane restriction is a law in most states. I just wish they'd enforce that law. The left lane in a multi-lane road is for PASSING ONLY! It is not for cruising slow, fast, or otherwise.

[keschofield]

There was no good reason for giving women the right to drive in my opinion.

Huh?????

Hopefully you're being sarcastic.

[keschofield]

Kurt:

These are the days when I wish commuter railroads were still commonplace.

They wouldn't help me in my job, but I know what you mean. That's one thing I miss about not being near "The City".

[Kyle Holgate]

I wish they'd just enforce the existing laws all across the board. Heading to work this morning, running at about 60mph (5 over the limit) and everyone is doing OK. There is a slow down about a mile ahead. Amazing how many people go zooming by at 70 or more and simply hurry up and join the slow traffic. Then you have the ones that want to go 40 in the 55 zone, which are just as dangerous in their own way.
People also are running red lights more and more, then complain when the city puts in red-light cameras. Speed cam's are also getting very common now.
Ya know - if you stop breaking the law they won't put up the cameras folks.

Many people drive dangerously, but believe they're good drivers and others are bad drivers. It's always the other guy's fault!

[djcyclone]

Speaking of Red Lights.

They where wanting to put Cameras where I live, and I was all for it. I see people Run Red Lights all the time.

When ever I am making a left turn at a red light with an arrow, I will not pull out into the lane anymore and wait for the yellow as you are alowed to do. Only one car is supposed to do that at a time, and every time I do it, I get a little train following me of about two or three cars. Just stay close to the car in front of you and its okay right? (NO ITS NOT)

Another thing that drives me nutts. You see people driving so close to the car in front of them, and a light way ahead of them will turn red. Now the cars all come to a stop, and person is so ignorant as to what they are doing, that they end up stoping right in the intersection of the first light.

Then that light turns red and the cross trafic has to sit there because dip SH** is sitting right in front of them. You are supposed to wait at the line until you can see that you have enough room on the other side of the intersection.

I saw a guy a couple of months ago stop right behind people while he was across some rail road tracks. He was in a Dodge Ram also, and I know those trucks are tough, BUT THEIR NOT THAT TOUGH.

I am all for those cameras, and I think they should send tickets in the mail to people who do all of the above, plus the people who sit and sleep through green lights.

(THE LIGHT IS NOT GOING TO GET ANY GREENER, I SWEAR, THAT IS AS GREEN AS IT GETS).

Or (IF YOUR GOING TO MAKE THIS YOUR HOME, PUT A FENCE AROUND IT AND WARN PEOPLE TO GO AROUND YOU)

Not to mention the people who accerlerate so slow, that you get to the next intersection and you are still not up to the speed limit yet which is only 30 MPH.

"IT IS THE PEDLE ON THE RIGHT. YOU PRESS IT AND THE CAR GOES FASTER, NOW MOVE!"

I do not have a problem with ROAD RAGE, I just have a problem with the other idiots that are driving when I am.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Watch out or the Gray Panthers will get you. :D This old person gets just as frustrated as you do at the same things. However, one thing to keep in mind is a scene from some movie whose name escapes me - Middle aged woman heads for a parking place in a crowded parking lot. Car full of young girls cuts in front of her and takes the spot. They yell, "Face it lady, we're younger and faster". Middle aged woman lines up her car with theirs and smashes it out of the spot and yells back, "Face it girls, I'm older and have more insurance".

Seriously though, the left lane restriction is a law in most states. I just wish they'd enforce that law. The left lane in a multi-lane road is for PASSING ONLY! It is not for cruising slow, fast, or otherwise.

Heh Heh Heh!:D

[Ed Rotondaro]

Huh?????

Hopefully you're being sarcastic.

Kurt:

You think I'd say that to my wife? She's an advanced brown belt in karate!:eek: Plus you know me, I'm the resident Democrat around here. (Scott cringes in horror).

[john964]

My city installed photo red cameras at a notorious intersection for red-light runners. During the warning period of one month when the runners would only get a warning ticket instead of a infraction ticket the cameras caught over 400 redlight runners 472 to be exact. The first month of issuing actual tickets they issued 385 tickets. These tickets are not cheap either at $200 USD a pop. That intersection has been averaging 300 tickets a month since.

[Kyle Holgate]

We could probably start up a whole thread on driving, but considering how strongly people feel about it - not sure it'd be any "cooler' than talking polotics or religeon!

I would love to see a study on the psychology of driving - often wondering what motivates various behaviors.
Why for example do people feel the desire to go as fast as they can (usually within reason and taking account of laws)? I wonder about this in my self too. I don't find being in the car a horrible or painful thing, yet my frustration level at times setting at a green light waiting for the guy ahead to get a clue, or following a slow driver can get pretty high. I honestlly don't know why that is though. I have no good reason for it that I am aware of.

[old_pop2000]

Wow! That was fun. We just had a nice little rumble. USGS says it was a 5.0 1 mile from Lennox and 1 mile from Inglewood. It was 8.4 miles down. That would place it, west of US 110, SE of Culver City. It was probably on the Newport-Inglewood fault zone.

They've already had a 3.1 aftershock, a few minutes later.

[Ed Rotondaro]

Wow! That was fun. We just had a nice little rumble. USGS says it was a 5.0 1 mile from Lennox and 1 mile from Inglewood. It was 8.4 miles down. That would place it, west of US 110, SE of Culver City. It was probably on the Newport-Inglewood fault zone.

They've already had a 3.1 aftershock, a few minutes later.

Dennis:

Any damages to your home?

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

Any damages to your home?

No, just my wife's nerves. She hates earthquakes.:p

[old_pop2000]

The 4.7 earthquake last Sunday was centered on the Newport-Inglewood fault which is about 150 miles long starting in San Diego as the Rose Canyon Fault. Another 4.1 occurred today in about the same location, 10 miles SW of downtown Los Angeles. There were 10 aftershocks measured. The quake lasted 10-15 seconds.

The Sunday evening quake did minor damage to windows but nothing really extensive.

Hopefully, our end of the fault will stay quiet. Downtown San Diego sits almost on top or near the top of the Rose Canyon Fault.

Shake, Rattle and Roll, baby:p:p

[Ed Rotondaro]

No, just my wife's nerves. She hates earthquakes.:p

Dennis:

Is your wife a California native? If so one would think she would get used to them.

[old_pop2000]

Dennis:

Is your wife a California native? If so one would think she would get used to them.

Yup, she was born and raised in San Diego like myself. In fact, her hospital is about 5 miles from mine.

But, she still does not like them.

[old_pop2000]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091218/ap_on_sc/us_deep_sea_volcano

This is interesting:)

[Kyle Holgate]

Happy Cascadia subduction quake day.

On this day 310 years ago the Cascadia subduction zone let loose with an earthquake that has been estimated to have been about 9.0 on the Richter scale. I hope I'm pushing up daisies when the next one hits not after... if you catch my drift!

[Ed Rotondaro]

Happy Cascadia subduction quake day.

On this day 310 years ago the Cascadia subduction zone let loose with an earthquake that has been estimated to have been about 9.0 on the Richter scale. I hope I'm pushing up daisies when the next one hits not after... if you catch my drift!

Kyle:

What exactly is a subduction quake? Man 9 on the Richter scale, that's like something out of a Hollywood disaster film.

[Kyle Holgate]

My visit to the Cascade Volcano observatory (CVO) was quite interesting. They had their open house on Saturday up in Vancouver Washington (just across the Columbia river from Portland).
The studies going on there are fascinating, wish I could give some detain on them but with only a couple hours of visiting and chatting with the scientists on staff I could only scratch the surface. Some I found interesting in particular are the ones looking at Mount Rainier which is the most dangerous volcano in the US, so they say. I'm not sure they count Yellowstone or Long Valley in this. They have a lot of information on the lahars (volcanic mud flows) that hasn't been released yet to the scientific community and isn't on line. The poor lady that looks at water turbidity ( silt in water) was finding herself upstaged by lava, earthquakes and pyroclastic flows so I had to chat with her a bit (besides she wasn't in high demand). After 30 years the Cowlitz river which has a tributary coming from St. Helens is still very flood prone due to sediment filling the channel. The economic costs from silt and mud coming from St. Helens is having a higher impact than any of the other more commonly talked things from volcanoes.
The CVO will be updating and improving monitoring on most of the Cascades here in the next year. The lead volcanologist is of the view that they are under monitored as any one of them could 'pop off' with as little as a weeks notice from quiet to full eruption. Many up there felt they were very lucky that St. Helens gave over 2 months of warning before the major eruption. Hood (45 miles east of Portland) or Rainier (with suburbs of Seattle and much of Tacoma Washington down stream) may not do that.

Anyhow good fun, and 2 new T shirts came out of my day. Mt. Hood was setting there all cloaked in snow looking innocent as I drove home. Hmmm.

[old_pop2000]

My visit to the Cascade Volcano observatory (CVO) was quite interesting. They had their open house on Saturday up in Vancouver Washington (just across the Columbia river from Portland).
The studies going on there are fascinating, wish I could give some detain on them but with only a couple hours of visiting and chatting with the scientists on staff I could only scratch the surface. Some I found interesting in particular are the ones looking at Mount Rainier which is the most dangerous volcano in the US, so they say. I'm not sure they count Yellowstone or Long Valley in this. They have a lot of information on the lahars (volcanic mud flows) that hasn't been released yet to the scientific community and isn't on line. The poor lady that looks at water turbidity ( silt in water) was finding herself upstaged by lava, earthquakes and pyroclastic flows so I had to chat with her a bit (besides she wasn't in high demand). After 30 years the Cowlitz river which has a tributary coming from St. Helens is still very flood prone due to sediment filling the channel. The economic costs from silt and mud coming from St. Helens is having a higher impact than any of the other more commonly talked things from volcanoes.
The CVO will be updating and improving monitoring on most of the Cascades here in the next year. The lead volcanologist is of the view that they are under monitored as any one of them could 'pop off' with as little as a weeks notice from quiet to full eruption. Many up there felt they were very lucky that St. Helens gave over 2 months of warning before the major eruption. Hood (45 miles east of Portland) or Rainier (with suburbs of Seattle and much of Tacoma Washington down stream) may not do that.

Anyhow good fun, and 2 new T shirts came out of my day. Mt. Hood was setting there all cloaked in snow looking innocent as I drove home. Hmmm.

Hi Kyle:
Sounds like great fun. My wife and I might fly to Portland, grab a rental car and see the area like we did four or five years ago. I want to see Hood and St. Helens, plus take a run over to Tillamook and see the aircraft museum.

[Kyle Holgate]

Hi Kyle:
Sounds like great fun. My wife and I might fly to Portland, grab a rental car and see the area like we did four or five years ago. I want to see Hood and St. Helens, plus take a run over to Tillamook and see the aircraft museum.

Let me know when/if you come up this way - would love to argue with, uh - I mean meet you in person ;). I have some roadside geology books on St. Helens you could take along on your drive up & I could provide some local know how on places to eat, visit that may not be known. If you've never been over McKenzie pass (and have time) for example I HIGHLY recommend it. It's very unknown even for people around here and has some long expanses of lava flows and fields and just great all around scenery. It's a bit of a drive from Portland but worth it. (google maps, highway 242 west from Sisters if you want to find it on the map).

[old_pop2000]

Let me know when/if you come up this way - would love to argue with, uh - I mean meet you in person ;). I have some roadside geology books on St. Helens you could take along on your drive up & I could provide some local know how on places to eat, visit that may not be known. If you've never been over McKenzie pass (and have time) for example I HIGHLY recommend it. It's very unknown even for people around here and has some long expanses of lava flows and fields and just great all around scenery. It's a bit of a drive from Portland but worth it. (google maps, highway 242 west from Sisters if you want to find it on the map).

You bet, I would love it.

[Mike Malanaphy]

Hi Kyle:
Sounds like great fun. My wife and I might fly to Portland, grab a rental car and see the area like we did four or five years ago. I want to see Hood and St. Helens, plus take a run over to Tillamook and see the aircraft museum.

Hi Dennis,

The Tillamook air museum is about a 2 hr drive from Portland and well worth the trip. Also a good place to visit is the Evergreen Air Museum in McMinneville which is about 40 mins from Portland so you can see the Spruce Goose and a lot of other nice exhibits. Love to buy you lunch if you got time.

[old_pop2000]

Hi Dennis,

The Tillamook air museum is about a 2 hr drive from Portland and well worth the trip. Also a good place to visit is the Evergreen Air Museum in McMinneville which is about 40 mins from Portland so you can see the Spruce Goose and a lot of other nice exhibits. Love to buy you lunch if you got time.

Sounds like a plan, but I buy. Maybe we can all get together, that would be fun.

[Mike Malanaphy]

Sounds like a plan, but I buy. Maybe we can all get together, that would be fun.

Hi Dennis,

LOL, don't worry..... A Costco dog and soda still only $1.50....best deal in the Western hemishpere. And no sales tax. : )

[old_pop2000]

Hi Dennis,

LOL, don't worry..... A Costco dog and soda still only $1.50....best deal in the Western hemishpere. And no sales tax. : )

Hey, don't knock 'em, I like their hog dog and a coke. I also like their pizza. Sounds really great.

[keschofield]

Hey, don't knock 'em, I like their hog dog and a coke. I also like their pizza. Sounds really great.

Sounds like my daily road lunch, QuickTrip hot dog, bottle of pop, and bag of chips for $3.25.
Tastes good and easy to handle while driving and looking at houses.

[old_pop2000]

Looks like mother nature is busy today up in the NW. Nothing substantial, but something to talk about.

[Kyle Holgate]

Looks like mother nature is busy today up in the NW. Nothing substantial, but something to talk about.

Mt. Hood is at it again (or still). They don't appear to be particularly eventful in that they look like typical quakes associated with fault lines as opposed to magma related. What has me watching though is that they're showing up in an area not previously very active - the SW side.
http://www.pnsn.org/HOOD/hoodfigs.html

One things I got from my CVO visit - one of the geologists showed me how to look at the seismograph traces and do some interpreting of what I'm seeing. I've got an idea now of how to tell a rockfall/avalanche as compared to a fault as compared to a magma movement caused event.

[john964]

Today is May 18 2010 the thirtith anniversery of the eruption of Mt St Helens. Where were you when it happened? If you lived in the area what were you experances with the ash, the clean up and what not. I was 13 at the time, I remember cleaning up the ash from our roof and sidewalk with a garden hose(and swearing a blue streak) because the ash was like wet cement when it was wet. I also remember walking to a nearby store to get essential supplies IIRC TP, milk, soap, cerial, and soda.

[Kyle Holgate]

Today is May 18 2010 the thirtith anniversery of the eruption of Mt St Helens. Where were you when it happened? If you lived in the area what were you experances with the ash, the clean up and what not. I was 13 at the time, I remember cleaning up the ash from our roof and sidewalk with a garden hose(and swearing a blue streak) because the ash was like wet cement when it was wet. I also remember walking to a nearby store to get essential supplies IIRC TP, milk, soap, cerial, and soda.

I was about 40 miles SW of the mountain when it went up - or rather over then up (lateral blast). Until my folks called from Newport OR - on the coast and 100 or so miles away from the mountain I had no idea anything was going on. They heard the eruption clearly as two loud bangs like someone was blasting. I flipped on the news briefly then high tailed it with a friend up to a forest fire lookout on a nearby hilltop (2000 feet or so). From there I watched as the vertical column of ash shot up to what they say now is around 80,000 feet. It pushed through a high layer of clouds just like I've seen A-bomb videos show. I sat and watched for a few hours as lightning flashed in the column.
Weirdest thing is it was absolutely silent. Granted I was probably 30 miles away, but that monstrous eruption and lightning just seemed like it HAD to be loud enough to hear!

We did not get any ash on May 18. We got a dusting about a month later after another eruption. 3 months later we got about 1/2 inch of the stuff and I remember looking out in the morning with everything a flat grey color.
The stuff was annoying and got into everything. After about a week it was mostly off the roads and over on the shoulders. On the up side, anyone tailgating you could be dealt with quickly by sliding onto the road shoulder slightly. The result was a thick cloud of 'smoke' that would have made any James Bond proud. Worked for Cops too... ahem, so I heard.

I've been up to the mountain every year or so from 1981 to present. I find it just fascinating to watch as life returns. On my first visit in spring 81 I thought nothing would grow there for 10's for hundreds of years - looked like the moon except with millions of downed trees. Now green everywhere, elk all over, birds all over, fish back in the lakes. Pretty amazing.

[Kyle Holgate]

The Puget sound region of Washington and the north Willamette valley area of Oregon are starting to get interestingly active recently. Everything (so far) is very small, but it's somewhat unusual in the 10 years or more that I've been watching.

recently looked compared the last several years of activity at Mt. St. Helens with that of Mt. Hood (next major mountain south down the Cascade chain for those that don't know). Mt Hood has had more 'quake activity than St. Helens for a while now.
The Geologists are saying it's tectonic (faults and such) not volcanic (magma moving around) but still, it's interesting. I have looked at the seismographs and I'm pretty sure the geologists are being up front. On my most recent visit to the Cascade Volcano Observatory (CVO) they showed me how to 'read' seismographs - or at least tell different kinds of events apart.

[old_pop2000]

The Puget sound region of Washington and the north Willamette valley area of Oregon are starting to get interestingly active recently. Everything (so far) is very small, but it's somewhat unusual in the 10 years or more that I've been watching.

recently looked compared the last several years of activity at Mt. St. Helens with that of Mt. Hood (next major mountain south down the Cascade chain for those that don't know). Mt Hood has had more 'quake activity than St. Helens for a while now.
The Geologists are saying it's tectonic (faults and such) not volcanic (magma moving around) but still, it's interesting. I have looked at the seismographs and I'm pretty sure the geologists are being up front. On my most recent visit to the Cascade Volcano Observatory (CVO) they showed me how to 'read' seismographs - or at least tell different kinds of events apart.

Hi Kyle:
I will have to start monitoring the CVO for information. Looks interesting. Could it be activity on the Juan De Fuca plate area subduction zone?

Here's something to examine.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38661354/ns/technology_and_science-science/

[Kyle Holgate]

Hi Kyle:
I will have to start monitoring the CVO for information. Looks interesting. Could it be activity on the Juan De Fuca plate area subduction zone?

Here's something to examine.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38661354/ns/technology_and_science-science/

Based on what I know of the JDF plate subduction zone, these little microquakes are not related directly. The JDF plate should be 40-50 miles dowl where the little shakers are going off. The depth simply isn't great enough. There are a number faults in western Oregon and more around Seattle that are probably twitching. Portland is lined with faults, though there have been few historical quakes there. Just look at the Columbia river on a map. Rivers don't flow west then decide to run north for 50 miles then back west again without some geologic reason. All of western Oregon is inching north over time.
Thanks for the link Dennis - interesting!

I'm gonna go home and change out my stash of fresh water and see if anything else in my quake kit needs work. Ya never know.

[old_pop2000]

Based on what I know of the JDF plate subduction zone, these little microquakes are not related directly. The JDF plate should be 40-50 miles dowl where the little shakers are going off. The depth simply isn't great enough. There are a number faults in western Oregon and more around Seattle that are probably twitching. Portland is lined with faults, though there have been few historical quakes there. Just look at the Columbia river on a map. Rivers don't flow west then decide to run north for 50 miles then back west again without some geologic reason. All of western Oregon is inching north over time.
Thanks for the link Dennis - interesting!

I'm gonna go home and change out my stash of fresh water and see if anything else in my quake kit needs work. Ya never know.

Hi Kyle:
My reason for asking the question was because the USGS site shows a line of small earthquakes leading down from Puget sound straight south. If you examine a subduction cross-section, it's right where the Juan De Fuca subducts under the continental crust into the mantle. Is the seismic activity tectonic or magmatic? According to the Cascade Range update for August 6th, everything is at normal background levels. We are due another update on Friday. From this information, it must be tectonic, not magmatic.

[Kyle Holgate]

Hi Kyle:
My reason for asking the question was because the USGS site shows a line of small earthquakes leading down from Puget sound straight south. If you examine a subduction cross-section, it's right where the Juan De Fuca subducts under the continental crust into the mantle. Is the seismic activity tectonic or magmatic? According to the Cascade Range update for August 6th, everything is at normal background levels. We are due another update on Friday. From this information, it must be tectonic, not magmatic.

The line from Puget sound down to NW Oregon is interesting. If you go to the quakes themselves they're all (as far as I can tell, being an amature at this) tectonic. As I said earlier, the point where the subducting JDF plate meets the North American plate is much deeper than the quakes are showing up. One cluster is clearly near the West Hills fault that runs through Portland then north. It looks like some stress is being relieved along the whole inland valley area from roughly Portland north.
I check the seismographs on the Cascades regularly. Not that I don't trust the geologists to tell us when things get active, but I'd still rather look for myself. Mt. Hood's quakes are in an unusual location compared to previously recorded ones and are showing up a bit deeper. I do wonder about them - Mt. Hoods last several eruptive episodes have all been on the southern flank, and that's the area where the quakes are concentrating. I may go up there this weekend (supposed to be hot here) and play in the snow - jump up and down a bit just for kicks :cool:.

[old_pop2000]

The line from Puget sound down to NW Oregon is interesting. If you go to the quakes themselves they're all (as far as I can tell, being an amature at this) tectonic. As I said earlier, the point where the subducting JDF plate meets the North American plate is much deeper than the quakes are showing up. One cluster is clearly near the West Hills fault that runs through Portland then north. It looks like some stress is being relieved along the whole inland valley area from roughly Portland north.
I check the seismographs on the Cascades regularly. Not that I don't trust the geologists to tell us when things get active, but I'd still rather look for myself. Mt. Hood's quakes are in an unusual location compared to previously recorded ones and are showing up a bit deeper. I do wonder about them - Mt. Hoods last several eruptive episodes have all been on the southern flank, and that's the area where the quakes are concentrating. I may go up there this weekend (supposed to be hot here) and play in the snow - jump up and down a bit just for kicks :cool:.

Hi Kyle:
A visit might be a good idea, but I don't see any real data that indicates something other than normal. Let me know what you find, this is interesting.

[Kyle Holgate]

Hi Kyle:
A visit might be a good idea, but I don't see any real data that indicates something other than normal. Let me know what you find, this is interesting.

If I go up (still deciding on Tillamook air museum visit and beach or Mt. Hood) it would be mostly to check on things that the geologists don't pay that much attention too, or at least don't report on. There are areas on the mountain that I've been poking around for years and if more hydrogen sulfide than usual is coming out I may be able to tell using the old schnoz. HS gas stinks to high heavens, easily detectable using no instruments at all! I can also just look to see if anything odd has been going on such as underbrush dieing off or dead grass areas. I don't know if the CVO people even look for little things like that, they seem to focus on more marcro signs such as quakes, ground deformation and large gas emissions that you can detect from aircraft and what not.

[old_pop2000]

If I go up (still deciding on Tillamook air museum visit and beach or Mt. Hood) it would be mostly to check on things that the geologists don't pay that much attention too, or at least don't report on. There are areas on the mountain that I've been poking around for years and if more hydrogen sulfide than usual is coming out I may be able to tell using the old schnoz. HS gas stinks to high heavens, easily detectable using no instruments at all! I can also just look to see if anything odd has been going on such as underbrush dieing off or dead grass areas. I don't know if the CVO people even look for little things like that, they seem to focus on more marcro signs such as quakes, ground deformation and large gas emissions that you can detect from aircraft and what not.

I suspect that the CVO has very sensitive HS detectors all over those mountains that regularly transmit back to Portland headquarters, information on gas content. I assume, rightly or wrongly, that they monitor the fumeroles on all the mountains. You would be looking for rates of release at least 5 to 10 times normal rates, and believe me, an aircraft flying over the mountain could detect such a release. Sulfur dioxide is a strong gas, IIRC.

Looking at the time vs depth charts and earthquakes vs cross-sections of Mt. Hood, much of the latest activity is around 5-10 KM on the southern side of the mountain, both SW to SE. The earthquakes are very weak. Sorry, I don't see a real issue with this one.

[Kyle Holgate]

I suspect that the CVO has very sensitive HS detectors all over those mountains that regularly transmit back to Portland headquarters, information on gas content. I assume, rightly or wrongly, that they monitor the fumeroles on all the mountains. You would be looking for rates of release at least 5 to 10 times normal rates, and believe me, an aircraft flying over the mountain could detect such a release. Sulfur dioxide is a strong gas, IIRC.

Looking at the time vs depth charts and earthquakes vs cross-sections of Mt. Hood, much of the latest activity is around 5-10 KM on the southern side of the mountain, both SW to SE. The earthquakes are very weak. Sorry, I don't see a real issue with this one.

I asked the CVO guys about monitoring of gas when I was up there for the open house last May. They don't have real time monitoring on any of the mountains including St. Helens and do annual fly-overs with Cospec (gas detection) gear only occasionally such as when something is 'twitching' or when joe public reports something (such as odd smell, steam). Other than seismometers and overflights on occasion (and satellite monitoring) the Cascades are not really well watched - much to the annoyance and concern of the geologists.

[old_pop2000]

I asked the CVO guys about monitoring of gas when I was up there for the open house last May. They don't have real time monitoring on any of the mountains including St. Helens and do annual fly-overs with Cospec (gas detection) gear only occasionally such as when something is 'twitching' or when joe public reports something (such as odd smell, steam). Other than seismometers and overflights on occasion (and satellite monitoring) the Cascades are not really well watched - much to the annoyance and concern of the geologists.

Kyle:
Gas isn't the first indicator of a stirring volcano, seismicity, ground deformation are all going to give you the earliest hint of activity. Changes in magnetic field strength can be monitored, from satellites as can airborne thermal imagery give indications of changes in temperatures and compositions. These techniques are used in Iceland and Italy, in fact all over the world.

Ground deformation can now be measured using InSAR which is a synthetic aperture radar. It's similar to using radar altimeters which I am very familiar with.

If the Cascades, so much as twitch, believe me, someone in Portland or Reston is going to know about

[Kyle Holgate]

Kyle:
Gas isn't the first indicator of a stirring volcano, seismicity, ground deformation are all going to give you the earliest hint of activity. Changes in magnetic field strength can be monitored, from satellites as can airborne thermal imagery give indications of changes in temperatures and compositions. These techniques are used in Iceland and Italy, in fact all over the world.

Ground deformation can now be measured using InSAR which is a synthetic aperture radar. It's similar to using radar altimeters which I am very familiar with.

If the Cascades, so much as twitch, believe me, someone in Portland or Reston is going to know about

Correct, however there are sometime changes in gas compositions and amounts that are not necessarily indicated by other factors - which is why they do the overflights and check things out (hike in and take on the ground measurements) when the public reports something. Bottom line from the CVO team is that volcanology is a very, very new science and there is a lot that isn't known. Satellites CAN give indications of activity but they must be tasked. Overflights too - aren't done as often as they could be. There are not enough seismometers to monitor things as well as they probably should be. Much like with many things it will take a disaster to get some of the things done that probably should be done now. Then there will be lots of finger pointing and recriminations, something we collectively are very good at :rolleyes:

[old_pop2000]

Correct, however there are sometime changes in gas compositions and amounts that are not necessarily indicated by other factors - which is why they do the overflights and check things out (hike in and take on the ground measurements) when the public reports something. Bottom line from the CVO team is that volcanology is a very, very new science and there is a lot that isn't known. Satellites CAN give indications of activity but they must be tasked. Overflights too - aren't done as often as they could be. There are not enough seismometers to monitor things as well as they probably should be. Much like with many things it will take a disaster to get some of the things done that probably should be done now. Then there will be lots of finger pointing and recriminations, something we collectively are very good at :rolleyes:

Kyle:
Let me clue you in on a fact. It has been my experience as a federal employee for 33 years, that they complain all the time about lack of time, equipment, procedures etc. It is always someone else's fault like the contractors. They complain that the contractors make more money, have more equipment and do less work. Most of the time, it is absolutely untrue. I'll bet that USGS geologists and volcanologists are no different. They have everything they ever asked for or wanted, when they needed it. If they see something abnormal in the Cascades, they will get more equipment, and assistance than they will know what to do with.

Another truism, government employees rarely worry about finger pointing. They are going to get paid no matter what, point fingers all you want. The same geologists at USGS who missed the Mt. St. Helen's catastrophe are probably still working at USGS and could care less about the finger pointing after the blast. But, that doesn't mean that they don't care, because they do. But they are going to go right back to work, and keep moving.

Relax my friend, if something happens, everyone in the government will know about long before you do. :p:D

[Kyle Holgate]

Kyle:
Let me clue you in on a fact. It has been my experience as a federal employee for 33 years, that they complain all the time about lack of time, equipment, procedures etc. It is always someone else's fault like the contractors. They complain that the contractors make more money, have more equipment and do less work. Most of the time, it is absolutely untrue. I'll bet that USGS geologists and volcanologists are no different. They have everything they ever asked for or wanted, when they needed it. If they see something abnormal in the Cascades, they will get more equipment, and assistance than they will know what to do with.

Another truism, government employees rarely worry about finger pointing. They are going to get paid no matter what, point fingers all you want. The same geologists at USGS who missed the Mt. St. Helen's catastrophe are probably still working at USGS and could care less about the finger pointing after the blast. But, that doesn't mean that they don't care, because they do. But they are going to go right back to work, and keep moving.

Relax my friend, if something happens, everyone in the government will know about long before you do. :p:D

I understand where you're coming from. A major volcanic eruption is fairly uncommon, and Cascade volcanoes still moreso. The problem is that we know so little about the Cascades in particular and volcanoes in general that something very unpleasant could happen with very little warning. In the scheme of all the things the Fed's spend money on volcano monitoring is pretty small change. It's like a smoke alarm - pretty cheap but can save lives. Why do we bother with smoke alarms, why not save the money and buy something else? Because I live here and spend time on and near volcanoes fairly often I'd be fully supportive of a bit more monitoring. They should take it away from the Hurricane or Tornado warning networks, those don't affect me, after all ;).

Notice that the NW quakes have mostly stopped in northwest Oregon, but there are still ones popping in SW Washington - and they're a little bigger.

[old_pop2000]

I understand where you're coming from. A major volcanic eruption is fairly uncommon, and Cascade volcanoes still moreso. The problem is that we know so little about the Cascades in particular and volcanoes in general that something very unpleasant could happen with very little warning. In the scheme of all the things the Fed's spend money on volcano monitoring is pretty small change. It's like a smoke alarm - pretty cheap but can save lives. Why do we bother with smoke alarms, why not save the money and buy something else? Because I live here and spend time on and near volcanoes fairly often I'd be fully supportive of a bit more monitoring. They should take it away from the Hurricane or Tornado warning networks, those don't affect me, after all ;).

Notice that the NW quakes have mostly stopped in northwest Oregon, but there are still ones popping in SW Washington - and they're a little bigger.

Kyle:
I am certain the people in the Gulf Coast and the East Coast might have strong disagreements with you. :p

Here are some interesting facts: There are 169 geologically active volcanoes in the US. The 2010 budget, in total for USGS is $1.1 Billion dollars. $247.00 million is for geologic activities. This is an increase over previous years budgets, especially for geologic hazards monitoring and assessments. I think they are now headed in the right direction. Global warming and its hazards, along with the increased hurricane intensity is taking more money. Sorry.

[Kyle Holgate]

Kyle:
I am certain the people in the Gulf Coast and the East Coast might have strong disagreements with you. :p

Here are some interesting facts: There are 169 geologically active volcanoes in the US. The 2010 budget, in total for USGS is $1.1 Billion dollars. $247.00 million is for geologic activities. This is an increase over previous years budgets, especially for geologic hazards monitoring and assessments. I think they are now headed in the right direction. Global warming and its hazards, along with the increased hurricane intensity is taking more money. Sorry.

They are doing much better than they had been, and the CVO people were mentioning back in May that they were soon installing new seismometers - though I now forget which peaks they were going on (:o). The thing that gets me is the complacency of people. At least it seems like (from my distant point of view) that quite a few take tornado and hurricanes fairly seriously. With a volcano, most of the threat is reasonably predictable, meaning that they know that downstream areas are in danger and where pyroclastic flows have traveled. Still though, people are allowed to build right on mudflow (lahar) deposits. Let's build right in the gun barrel, the gun won't fire, after all.
Unless it's a huge blast, Mt. Hood for example is not much threat except downstream from the mountain. Still they build. Sooner or later they'll be sorry.

[old_pop2000]

They are doing much better than they had been, and the CVO people were mentioning back in May that they were soon installing new seismometers - though I now forget which peaks they were going on (:o). The thing that gets me is the complacency of people. At least it seems like (from my distant point of view) that quite a few take tornado and hurricanes fairly seriously. With a volcano, most of the threat is reasonably predictable, meaning that they know that downstream areas are in danger and where pyroclastic flows have traveled. Still though, people are allowed to build right on mudflow (lahar) deposits. Let's build right in the gun barrel, the gun won't fire, after all.
Unless it's a huge blast, Mt. Hood for example is not much threat except downstream from the mountain. Still they build. Sooner or later they'll be sorry.

Kyle:
Yea, I've talked to many people who feel that a major earthquake will never strike San Diego. Well, ok. But this old man is going to have enough water for each person for three days, flares, canned food, outdoor cooker, sleeping bags and....... weapons. Call me an alarmist, but it never helps to be prepared. I get a real kick out of watching the people in the midwest around Tennesse, kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, and other places near the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio rivers. You'd think, after the second time being flooded and unable to get flood insurance, they would try to find somewhere a little higher. Nope, never happened.

[Kyle Holgate]

Kyle:
Yea, I've talked to many people who feel that a major earthquake will never strike San Diego. Well, ok. But this old man is going to have enough water for each person for three days, flares, canned food, outdoor cooker, sleeping bags and....... weapons. Call me an alarmist, but it never helps to be prepared. I get a real kick out of watching the people in the midwest around Tennesse, kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, and other places near the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio rivers. You'd think, after the second time being flooded and unable to get flood insurance, they would try to find somewhere a little higher. Nope, never happened.

The expectation is that a subduction zone quake would probably do enough damage so that any help to even urban areas may be many hours if not days away. I'm living on the outskirts of town so would expect to be on my own for a while. No one knows how likely a quake is to hit soon - some have times over 1,000 years pass between SZ quakes, other times more like 300. It's been 310 years since the last one.
The keep finding more faults near and in Portland too, and since the vegetation is so thick around here they're hard to map out. Further they're unsure how active many of them are. Quakes are my primary concern. Flooding would have to be a 10,000 year event to get to me and any but the most violent volcanic eruption wouldn't do more than pile ash on. Urban unrest seems unlikely, and we have perhaps 3 thunderstorms a year (if that) so I'm not too concerned about major damage from that. We do get Pacific extra tropical cyclones - they can pack winds of over 100 mph. The last one to do much damage was in 1995 when it blew off a few roofs and knocked down some trees. The last really major one was on Columbus day in 1962. We had one wander by in 2007 (or 8) that blew down thousands of trees in the coast range, but missed the inland areas.
Yes, I've rattled on agan! :rolleyes:

[Mike Malanaphy]

The expectation is that a subduction zone quake would probably do enough damage so that any help to even urban areas may be many hours if not days away. I'm living on the outskirts of town so would expect to be on my own for a while. No one knows how likely a quake is to hit soon - some have times over 1,000 years pass between SZ quakes, other times more like 300. It's been 310 years since the last one.
The keep finding more faults near and in Portland too, and since the vegetation is so thick around here they're hard to map out. Further they're unsure how active many of them are. Quakes are my primary concern. Flooding would have to be a 10,000 year event to get to me and any but the most violent volcanic eruption wouldn't do more than pile ash on. Urban unrest seems unlikely, and we have perhaps 3 thunderstorms a year (if that) so I'm not too concerned about major damage from that. We do get Pacific extra tropical cyclones - they can pack winds of over 100 mph. The last one to do much damage was in 1995 when it blew off a few roofs and knocked down some trees. The last really major one was on Columbus day in 1962. We had one wander by in 2007 (or 8) that blew down thousands of trees in the coast range, but missed the inland areas.
Yes, I've rattled on agan! :rolleyes:

Hi Kyle,

Definitely something to be aware of especially with the local governmensts more enamored with bike paths and sustainability instead of preparedness. Too be fair, however, any such quake would be a major disaster and they are as greedy if more so than war for resources, so being ready to survive for 4-5 days is a necessity. Like Dennis, we have stuff set aside, but where to put it is another question. The garage is the obvious place unless your house collapses on it. So perhaps a backyard shed. I do have backpacks with food, water, and some other items in each car. My wife is retired and we live in Gresham on the east side of Portland and I work in North Portland, about 25 miles one way. I was here for the Columbus Day storm and some people were without power for two weeks. Portland has about 800 cops and 600 firefighters, so the plan is to put them on 12 hour shifts, but if there is massive infrastructure damage, how many could get to work is another story.

MREs anyone? : )

[old_pop2000]

Hi Guys;
I agree that we probably need to take care of ourselves, and not wait for the authorities to do it. Nothing against the public governments, but they will have the same problems with buildings down, power lines and cell towers out of commission etc. We have a few dams holding back some reservoirs that I am concerned about. Most of these have never experienced a 6.0 or higher earthquake. With my wife and I both retired, we at least know we will probably be together to solve the issues. I've been considering reorganizing my shed and placing some of the supplies in there. The pack idea sounds good, we have enough of those. MRE's, hmmmm, I dunno. That's getting desperate. I do keep the old WWII favorite on hand; SPAM.:D

Our biggest threat is the earthquakes and fires. We are safe in the fire category as we have a fire station up the road in the hills behind our home and a new one going in a mile from the house. We also have the areas around the house and in the green belt cleared well. I feel confident in that aspect. But earthquakes? That's another matter. We aren't sitting on soil that would experience liquifaction.

Frankly, I worry more about Marine and Navy jets and Helicopters along with the dumb private pilots than I do earthquakes. Wish I had stinger missile, that might allay my fears. ;)

[Mike Malanaphy]

Hi Guys;
I agree that we probably need to take care of ourselves, and not wait for the authorities to do it. Nothing against the public governments, but they will have the same problems with buildings down, power lines and cell towers out of commission etc. We have a few dams holding back some reservoirs that I am concerned about. Most of these have never experienced a 6.0 or higher earthquake. With my wife and I both retired, we at least know we will probably be together to solve the issues. I've been considering reorganizing my shed and placing some of the supplies in there. The pack idea sounds good, we have enough of those. MRE's, hmmmm, I dunno. That's getting desperate. I do keep the old WWII favorite on hand; SPAM.:D

Our biggest threat is the earthquakes and fires. We are safe in the fire category as we have a fire station up the road in the hills behind our home and a new one going in a mile from the house. We also have the areas around the house and in the green belt cleared well. I feel confident in that aspect. But earthquakes? That's another matter. We aren't sitting on soil that would experience liquifaction.

Frankly, I worry more about Marine and Navy jets and Helicopters along with the dumb private pilots than I do earthquakes. Wish I had stinger missile, that might allay my fears. ;)

Hi Dennis,

Our house is on pretty firm ground as well. Whenever you read about earthquakes, fire is an issue as water and gas pipes break. Gas to start the fires and no water for the fire guys to use to put it out. Like New Orleans for Katrina, the issue wil be those with little ability or desire to prepare. We've had serious power outages in this area before, so having supplies on hand is a good idea anyway. We are fortunate to have a gas water heater, range, and two gas fireplaces, so cooking and hot water are available. MMMMM, a generator for the big screen? I have to quit watching all those disaster shows on History and Discovery. : )

[steel_selachian]

Kyle:
Yea, I've talked to many people who feel that a major earthquake will never strike San Diego. Well, ok. But this old man is going to have enough water for each person for three days, flares, canned food, outdoor cooker, sleeping bags and....... weapons. Call me an alarmist, but it never helps to be prepared. I get a real kick out of watching the people in the midwest around Tennesse, kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, and other places near the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio rivers. You'd think, after the second time being flooded and unable to get flood insurance, they would try to find somewhere a little higher. Nope, never happened.

I got a lot of that kind of impression from five years living in Miami. One of the reasons the Everglades has gotten so screwed up in the last century is because people keep insisting on building on what used to be a sea-level swamp, which happens to be dangling into a hurricane strike zone. Ergo, they got the state and the feds to pour loads of money into flood control that trashed the natural hydrology.

Real estate: It ain't "Location, location, location," it's "What will the dumb suckers buy, and for how much?"

[old_pop2000]

I got a lot of that kind of impression from five years living in Miami. One of the reasons the Everglades has gotten so screwed up in the last century is because people keep insisting on building on what used to be a sea-level swamp, which happens to be dangling into a hurricane strike zone. Ergo, they got the state and the feds to pour loads of money into flood control that trashed the natural hydrology.

Real estate: It ain't "Location, location, location," it's "What will the dumb suckers buy, and for how much?"

Hi Steel:
We have the same problem with land developers who build in areas that haven't burned in one hundred years. We have condo developments on the tops of hills that require water to be pumped uphill into a storage tank, that's going to be fun in a fire. And believe me, its not will it happen, but when.

I truly believe that governments, at times, don't listen to their own scientists who are explaining that the earth's climate is in an interglacial period and its getting warmer and the caps are partially melting. Now where do they think all that water is going. It really doesn't matter if you believe in greenhouse gases and global warming. The earth's climate goes through such periods of heating and cooling. The earth's orbit is not fixed, it gets closer and then farther from the sun, the sun's radiation increases then decreases. These are a matter of scientific fact, not hearsay. I love the people who build expensive homes along the cliffs of the Pacific coast. Like cliffs don't erode and collapse. Happens all the time in San Diego.

[steel_selachian]

Yeah, I remember being on Santa Catalina Island in fall 2007 when the fires were going around Malibu and Arrowhead. 22 miles offshore and ash was falling on our heads.

Two weeks ago I picked up Carl Hiaasen's Kick Ass, which is a selection of his Miami Herald columns from 1985-1998. Some of the ones written before and after Hurricane Andrew are especially scathing in regards to how shoddy construction was (one development, which Disney owned and then sold off before the storm, had numerous cases of roofs where the nails had cleanly missed the trusses as well as other little issues).

Speaking as a scientist (well, an unemployed one), we don't often get listened to by the elected folks. Two years ago I watched a series of skits made by a group of West Coast fisheries biologists (including Milton Love of UC Santa Barbara, who is certifiably, entertainingly nuts). One in particular lampooning fishing quotas got a guy in the National Marine Fisheries Service in a bit of hot water.

[asnrobert]

When I was out in Arizona visiting the Grand Canyon recently, I also took a a trip to see the Meteor Crater located about 20 miles west of Winslow. You can see my photos at the link below:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rnrobert/sets/72157625172804902/

Interestinglly, the first scientist who explored it guessed it was a meteor crater, but when he couldn't find the meteor that had caused it (mainly because it had mostly been vaporized or shattered in pieces), he then assumed that it was caused by volcanic activity.

Of interest to Dennis, there was a also a shiny piece of metal visible from the crater rim. This was from a Cessna. In the 1960's, two guys in a Cessna flew into the crater and tried to fly out. Unfortunately, they were unable to do so and crash-landed in the crater. The men survived and were airlifted to a hospital, but the Cessna's s wreckage was stored in the mine shaft, where it remains for this day (except for a piece or two as you see here). For obvious reasons, planes are no longer allowed to fly into the crater!

[old_pop2000]

When I was out in Arizona visiting the Grand Canyon recently, I also took a a trip to see the Meteor Crater located about 20 miles west of Winslow. You can see my photos at the link below:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rnrobert/sets/72157625172804902/

Interestinglly, the first scientist who explored it guessed it was a meteor crater, but when he couldn't find the meteor that had caused it (mainly because it had mostly been vaporized or shattered in pieces), he then assumed that it was caused by volcanic activity.

Of interest to Dennis, there was a also a shiny piece of metal visible from the crater rim. This was from a Cessna. In the 1960's, two guys in a Cessna flew into the crater and tried to fly out. Unfortunately, they were unable to do so and crash-landed in the crater. The men survived and were airlifted to a hospital, but the Cessna's s wreckage was stored in the mine shaft, where it remains for this day (except for a piece or two as you see here). For obvious reasons, planes are no longer allowed to fly into the crater!

Hi Robert:
Thanks for sharing those wonderful photos. It's been long time since my wife and I visited Beringer Meteor Crater. We went there on our honeymoon when we were going to Grand Canyon. I still have the book they sell on the story. It's a great place to wander around. It's hard to believe someone is dumb enough to try to fly out of that crater. Alway's makes you wonder.

[Kyle Holgate]

I recently returned from a driving vacation. One of the destinations was Lassen Peak in northern California. It was quite an intersting place. The entire park is full of different sorts of volcanic landforms and there are boiling mud pots and jet-engine sounding steam vents - everything an amature volcanologist like me would want (that sounds better than volcano nut, so I'll stick with it). We finished out with a drive to the coast and up through the redwoods, along the Oregon coast then home. Lots of driving, but very nice.

Here's an article I found on Mt. Hood - Good sized voclano about 50 miles east of Portland.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100802141905.htm

[old_pop2000]

Mt. Merapi, in central Indonesia is getting worse. They had a pyroclastic flow which is very deadly and seems to have been unexpected a few weeks ago. Also, the 7.0 earthquake awakened Anak Krakatoa and other Indonesian volcanoes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101105/ap_on_re_as/as_indonesia_disasters

I doubt we will see "the year without a summer" again, but this could cause a 2011 world wide cooling if Merapi, Krakatoa and others spew enough ash into the skies.

[Kyle Holgate]

Mount Merapi's eruptions have been quite small - VEI index 3 perhaps and Anak Krakatau's are even smaller (so far). I appears to take a pretty big eruption (vei 5 or probably 6) to get enough gas and particles high enough to impact global temperatures. Pinatubo certainly did (a bit less than a degree C I think). Now if we have another Tambora, things could get quite interesting.
We has almost a year without a summer here in the Pac. NW. It's like we got stuck in late spring and stayed there until fall. Odd year, but I got a few tomatoes in spite of it.

[old_pop2000]

Mount Merapi's eruptions have been quite small - VEI index 3 perhaps and Anak Krakatau's are even smaller (so far). I appears to take a pretty big eruption (vei 5 or probably 6) to get enough gas and particles high enough to impact global temperatures. Pinatubo certainly did (a bit less than a degree C I think). Now if we have another Tambora, things could get quite interesting.
We has almost a year without a summer here in the Pac. NW. It's like we got stuck in late spring and stayed there until fall. Odd year, but I got a few tomatoes in spite of it.

They have been quite small... to date. The largest eruption in 1872 was a VEI 4. However, that doesn't preclude a worsening of the situation. If Merapi, Krakatoa and others begin to vent more ash, the cumulative total could cause some problems climatologically, however, minor. Remember Kamchatka is having some ash eruptions along with the Icelandic volcano. The 1816 "year without a summer" was partially caused by a solar minimum and we have been experiencing that for the last three years. Modern ice core studies have shown that one volcano isn't enough to cause such a condition for a whole decade. So, Tambora may have contributed, but another volcano and other conditions were major contributors and some of the factors are being experienced presently. The real issue then is our lack of a real theory as to how that decade long cold spell was generated. It would seem to be a combination of many factors.

[Kyle Holgate]

They have been quite small... to date. The largest eruption in 1872 was a VEI 4. However, that doesn't preclude a worsening of the situation. If Merapi, Krakatoa and others begin to vent more ash, the cumulative total could cause some problems climatologically, however, minor. Remember Kamchatka is having some ash eruptions along with the Icelandic volcano. The 1816 "year without a summer" was partially caused by a solar minimum and we have been experiencing that for the last three years. Modern ice core studies have shown that one volcano isn't enough to cause such a condition for a whole decade. So, Tambora may have contributed, but another volcano and other conditions were major contributors and some of the factors are being experienced presently. The real issue then is our lack of a real theory as to how that decade long cold spell was generated. It would seem to be a combination of many factors.

My understanding is that the main impact on climate is due to large eruptions getting ash and gas higher into the atmosphere. So while larger numbers of smaller eruptions get more gas and ash in general into the lower layers of the atmosphere, it takes a big one (VIE5 or more likely 6 or higher) to really get an impact.
The above is based on lots of reading and to be sure I am not expert on the subject! I'd certainly be interested if you find something that deals with smaller eruptions and any global effects resulting from them. Do a whole bunch of little 'burps' add up and have an impact? Is the impact similar or different than that caused by a big eruption (like Pinatubo or Tambora)? I'd like to know!

Edit - note I'm talking about the relatively short term impacts such as we saw with Pinatubo and historically with Tambora and I believe the Laki eruption in Iceland (1700's). Givent that Laki's impact was gas in the lower atmosphere it is reasonable to think that lots gas from lots of eruptions should add up. The impact is probably different than ash int he stratosphere. I'd like to get a discussion on climage change here, but it's do blasted political I'm not sure if it can be talked about objectively without breaking the no politics rules!
Interesting subject.

[old_pop2000]

My understanding is that the main impact on climate is due to large eruptions getting ash and gas higher into the atmosphere. So while larger numbers of smaller eruptions get more gas and ash in general into the lower layers of the atmosphere, it takes a big one (VIE5 or more likely 6 or higher) to really get an impact.
The above is based on lots of reading and to be sure I am not expert on the subject! I'd certainly be interested if you find something that deals with smaller eruptions and any global effects resulting from them. Do a whole bunch of little 'burps' add up and have an impact? Is the impact similar or different than that caused by a big eruption (like Pinatubo or Tambora)? I'd like to know!

Edit - note I'm talking about the relatively short term impacts such as we saw with Pinatubo and historically with Tambora and I believe the Laki eruption in Iceland (1700's). Givent that Laki's impact was gas in the lower atmosphere it is reasonable to think that lots gas from lots of eruptions should add up. The impact is probably different than ash int he stratosphere. I'd like to get a discussion on climage change here, but it's do blasted political I'm not sure if it can be talked about objectively without breaking the no politics rules!
Interesting subject.

Hi Kyle:
Based on my studies in meteorology, climatology in college, volcanoes affect climate in three ways; Effects on the Ozone, which is destroyed by Halide acid. The effects are indirect, not direct.
Influence on the Greenhouse effect by adding Carbon Dioxide to the atmosphere, but warming due to anthropormophic influences have a more pronounced effect. Influence on haze and this can lower global temperatures. We used to feel that ash had the most pronounced effect. That's what I learned, but that changed with the 1982 El Chichon volcano. It was smaller than Mt. St. Helens but emitted much more sulfur-rich gases. Scientist's have discovered that pyroclastic flow is not a good criteria for judging effects. The amount of sulfur is far more important as sulfur mixes with water vapor in the statosphere and forms large dense clouds of sulfuric acid. They do far more damage than ash in the troposphere. Mt. Pinatubo erupted the largest concentration of sulfur dioxide in this century. Over the next two years, world temperatures decreased by two degrees.

Based on this, the VEI is not as important as the sulfur content and ash combined.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/index.php

http://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/index.html

[Mike Malanaphy]

My understanding is that the main impact on climate is due to large eruptions getting ash and gas higher into the atmosphere. So while larger numbers of smaller eruptions get more gas and ash in general into the lower layers of the atmosphere, it takes a big one (VIE5 or more likely 6 or higher) to really get an impact.
The above is based on lots of reading and to be sure I am not expert on the subject! I'd certainly be interested if you find something that deals with smaller eruptions and any global effects resulting from them. Do a whole bunch of little 'burps' add up and have an impact? Is the impact similar or different than that caused by a big eruption (like Pinatubo or Tambora)? I'd like to know!

Edit - note I'm talking about the relatively short term impacts such as we saw with Pinatubo and historically with Tambora and I believe the Laki eruption in Iceland (1700's). Givent that Laki's impact was gas in the lower atmosphere it is reasonable to think that lots gas from lots of eruptions should add up. The impact is probably different than ash int he stratosphere. I'd like to get a discussion on climage change here, but it's do blasted political I'm not sure if it can be talked about objectively without breaking the no politics rules!
Interesting subject.



Hi Kyle,

It would be very interesting as there is a mass of conflicting data on the subject. Inevitably, it would boil down to "politics" as plans stemming from the research to ameliorate it's effects would touch virtually everyone on the planet.

[Kyle Holgate]

Hi Kyle:
Based on my studies in meteorology, climatology in college, volcanoes affect climate in three ways; Effects on the Ozone, which is destroyed by Halide acid. The effects are indirect, not direct.
Influence on the Greenhouse effect by adding Carbon Dioxide to the atmosphere, but warming due to anthropormophic influences have a more pronounced effect. Influence on haze and this can lower global temperatures. We used to feel that ash had the most pronounced effect. That's what I learned, but that changed with the 1982 El Chichon volcano. It was smaller than Mt. St. Helens but emitted much more sulfur-rich gases. Scientist's have discovered that pyroclastic flow is not a good criteria for judging effects. The amount of sulfur is far more important as sulfur mixes with water vapor in the statosphere and forms large dense clouds of sulfuric acid. They do far more damage than ash in the troposphere. Mt. Pinatubo erupted the largest concentration of sulfur dioxide in this century. Over the next two years, world temperatures decreased by two degrees.

Based on this, the VEI is not as important as the sulfur content and ash combined.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/index.php

http://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/index.html

Pyroclastic flows don't have much to do with VEI - are relatively irrelivant with regards to short term climate change. A higher end VEI eruption frequently does have pyroclastic flows or base surges (where the eruption column collapses) but it's the vertical column pumping the dust and gas high into the stratosphere that has the impact. A small high sulpher eruption won't get the particulates as high and won't have the global effect of a lower sulpher, but higher explosivity eruption that transports the sulpher high up. Sulpher has to get above the troposphere to have long term climate effects as discussed in several easily found papers online. VEI 5-6 is enough to get it up there. Below that lots of sulpher isn't going to matter too much as it won't get up to where it's going to do anything climatactically (is that a word?) speaking.

[old_pop2000]

Pyroclastic flows don't have much to do with VEI - are relatively irrelivant with regards to short term climate change. A higher end VEI eruption frequently does have pyroclastic flows or base surges (where the eruption column collapses) but it's the vertical column pumping the dust and gas high into the stratosphere that has the impact. A small high sulpher eruption won't get the particulates as high and won't have the global effect of a lower sulpher, but higher explosivity eruption that transports the sulpher high up. Sulpher has to get above the troposphere to have long term climate effects as discussed in several easily found papers online. VEI 5-6 is enough to get it up there. Below that lots of sulpher isn't going to matter too much as it won't get up to where it's going to do anything climatactically (is that a word?) speaking.

Based on the reports that I've read, recent ice cores and other data show that sulfur gas can and does rise to the stratosphere from even smaller volcanoes. There are many factors involved, according to recent research, in the modification of the climate for both short and medium terms. What you have stated is the old thinking and newer research has shown that that might not be true anymore. The variance in the earths orbit, the expansion and contraction of the sun, earth's wobble every 26,000 years and other sources for sulfur dioxide gases all contribute. I frankly don't believe we know enough or have enough data to state with any certainty that a certain volcanic eruption of a given size, causes or has caused the conditions for the 1816 year without a summer or any other such occurrance. We know it was a decade long occurrance during the period we now call the Little Ice age when the Atlantic conveyor was disrupted by melt water and other natural phenomenon.

Note: Mt. Tambora is estimated to have dumped about 200 million tons of sulfur into the atmosphere. I suspect that had far more to do with the "Year without a summer" than the ash cloud did.

[Kyle Holgate]

Based on the reports that I've read, recent ice cores and other data show that sulfur gas can and does rise to the stratosphere from even smaller volcanoes. There are many factors involved, according to recent research, in the modification of the climate for both short and medium terms. What you have stated is the old thinking and newer research has shown that that might not be true anymore. The variance in the earths orbit, the expansion and contraction of the sun, earth's wobble every 26,000 years and other sources for sulfur dioxide gases all contribute. I frankly don't believe we know enough or have enough data to state with any certainty that a certain volcanic eruption of a given size, causes or has caused the conditions for the 1816 year without a summer or any other such occurrance. We know it was a decade long occurrance during the period we now call the Little Ice age when the Atlantic conveyor was disrupted by melt water and other natural phenomenon.

Note: Mt. Tambora is estimated to have dumped about 200 million tons of sulfur into the atmosphere. I suspect that had far more to do with the "Year without a summer" than the ash cloud did.

Our discussion here sounds a lot like those going on in the scientific community. We all tend to subsribe (for lack of a better word) to some theories and remain skeptical of others. I think as you say, we don't know a lot and the proverbial jury is still out on what effect volcanoes have on climate. While we know that Tambora and Pinatubo for example, did have an impact we don't know exactly what the process was - be it sulpher, ash particles or other gasses in the atmosphere or a combination of all + potnentially other things.
I'll keep on top of this subject and link to new or interesting information I find (whether it serves to support my views or not ;))

[old_pop2000]

Our discussion here sounds a lot like those going on in the scientific community. We all tend to subsribe (for lack of a better word) to some theories and remain skeptical of others. I think as you say, we don't know a lot and the proverbial jury is still out on what effect volcanoes have on climate. While we know that Tambora and Pinatubo for example, did have an impact we don't know exactly what the process was - be it sulpher, ash particles or other gasses in the atmosphere or a combination of all + potnentially other things.
I'll keep on top of this subject and link to new or interesting information I find (whether it serves to support my views or not ;))

Hi Kyle:
Sounds like a plan, I will continue to research myself but extend to the climatology and meteorological aspects since I have schooling that. Here is an interesting piece at Wunderground.com. Note that one factor in volcanoes is the location. Apparently the rule is that the volcanic eruptions that do the most damage are in the tropics. That makes sense, since most of the earth heating comes from that region. Anyway, here is the link:

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/volcanoes.asp

Here is another article on ash particles from USGS, I don't know if you have seen this - http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash/properties.html

Here is another http://www.geo.mtu.edu/~raman/papers/BluthJG.pdf (http://www.geo.mtu.edu/~raman/papers/BluthJG.pdf)

BTW, consider this: An ash particle is probably heavier than a sulphur particle by composition and size. It stands to reason that the heavier particle would fall out of the atmosphere faster thereby having less effect on the insolation from the sun. The sulfur particle would combine with water vapor at around 30,000 to 40,000 feet. This cloud, because that is what it is, would block out the sun, as normal clouds do. However, the sulphur does have to be ejected past the tropopause or it might not work. That's the region between the troposphere and the stratosphere. Where the Jet stream lives.

[old_pop2000]

In this year, the Laki eruption took place in Iceland. It lasted about eight months and erupted 14 cubic KM of lava. It has been estimated that 80 MT of sulfuric aerosol was vented. In the Midwest, the temperature average was 4.8 degrees less than the 225 year average. This seems to prove that a "low energy, large volume, long duration basaltic eruptions can have climatic impacts greater than large volume explosive silica-rich eruptions."

The key is a sulfur rich magma, not a silica rich magma. The violence of the eruption is not the key to its effect on the atmosphere, its the gas.

[Kyle Holgate]

I don't think we know enough to draw any conclusions. There may have been other factors involved than just the Laki eruption. It wasn't very well observed, but maybe due to the unusually large volume of basalt it generated enough heat to push gasses higher than would be typical for a basaltic eruption. Maybe sulpher has an impact on weather/climate no matter whether it is in the lower atmosphere or in the stratosphere. Does a given volume of sulpher have a greater impact if it's higher up? Don't know. Silica itself probably has little effect directly. I think it is probable that silica's contribution is that hi silica magma can absorb a lot of gas, which allows for high VEI erutpions. It's the gunpowder for the cannon ball (in this case the sulpher). That it also explodes into lots of small particles (ash) and it too goes high up apparently has an additional impact (see various papers on the subject).
We need a super eruptions like Toba then after things calm down we need another flood basalt such as in Eastern Oregon. Then if anyone is left they can put all the data to good use!

[old_pop2000]

I don't think we know enough to draw any conclusions. There may have been other factors involved than just the Laki eruption. It wasn't very well observed, but maybe due to the unusually large volume of basalt it generated enough heat to push gasses higher than would be typical for a basaltic eruption. Maybe sulpher has an impact on weather/climate no matter whether it is in the lower atmosphere or in the stratosphere. Does a given volume of sulpher have a greater impact if it's higher up? Don't know. Silica itself probably has little effect directly. I think it is probable that silica's contribution is that hi silica magma can absorb a lot of gas, which allows for high VEI erutpions. It's the gunpowder for the cannon ball (in this case the sulpher). That it also explodes into lots of small particles (ash) and it too goes high up apparently has an additional impact (see various papers on the subject).
We need a super eruptions like Toba then after things calm down we need another flood basalt such as in Eastern Oregon. Then if anyone is left they can put all the data to good use!

Here is something to read about Laki and modern modelling. The PDF download is hard to find, but it is there.

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.org/10/6025/2010/acp-10-6025-2010.html

Here is page from Rutgers that has some interesting documents about this subject

http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/robock_volpapers.html

[Kyle Holgate]

Some information on the 'slow' subduction zone quake(s) in the Nortwest. I've been watching these little guys with suspicion for many years, interesting to see that I'm not the only one. Now at least we know what they are, if not what they may mean with regards to the impending 'big one'.

http://news.opb.org/article/27270-slow-motion-earthquakes-repeatedly-hit-northwest/

[old_pop2000]

Some information on the 'slow' subduction zone quake(s) in the Nortwest. I've been watching these little guys with suspicion for many years, interesting to see that I'm not the only one. Now at least we know what they are, if not what they may mean with regards to the impending 'big one'.

http://news.opb.org/article/27270-slow-motion-earthquakes-repeatedly-hit-northwest/

Hey Kyle:
That is interesting. How long have they known about these slow-motion earthquakes? Is there a scientific paper published on it, sounds interesting.... if you don't live in the area, of course. How's Mt. Hood doing?

[Kyle Holgate]

Here is a pretty recent article on Mt. Hood eruption triggering you may find intersting
http://geology.com/press-release/mount-hood-mixing-magmas/

Hood has settled down again as it typically does (until it doesn't that is). All quakes were catagorized as tectonic, not volcanic (faults not magma). To me the interesting thing was that they area of the quakes had shifted to the southwest of the mountain where they previously were almost all on the south side. What does it mean? Got me, and if any of the geologists are speculating, they are doing it quietly out of the limelight.

The slow subduction zone quake(s) have been reported on the southern part of Cascadia previously. There are some papers 5 years old give or take a few years. The northern 'creep' is a fairly recent discovery. I believe that this may explain the lack of a clear boundry between plates as you see looking at virtually any other subduction zone on the planet. In Alaska for example you can see the quakes start shallower and go deeper as you go inland - following the boundry of the Pacific plate as it dives down.
Also no ocean trench off the NW - which is another interesting feature (or lack thereof). The fact that Cascadia appears to be rather unique doesn't make it easier to predict! In my mind though, better slow creeping than a fast jolt every few years!

[Mike Malanaphy]

Here is a pretty recent article on Mt. Hood eruption triggering you may find intersting
http://geology.com/press-release/mount-hood-mixing-magmas/

Hood has settled down again as it typically does (until it doesn't that is). All quakes were catagorized as tectonic, not volcanic (faults not magma). To me the interesting thing was that they area of the quakes had shifted to the southwest of the mountain where they previously were almost all on the south side. What does it mean? Got me, and if any of the geologists are speculating, they are doing it quietly out of the limelight.

The slow subduction zone quake(s) have been reported on the southern part of Cascadia previously. There are some papers 5 years old give or take a few years. The northern 'creep' is a fairly recent discovery. I believe that this may explain the lack of a clear boundry between plates as you see looking at virtually any other subduction zone on the planet. In Alaska for example you can see the quakes start shallower and go deeper as you go inland - following the boundry of the Pacific plate as it dives down.
Also no ocean trench off the NW - which is another interesting feature (or lack thereof). The fact that Cascadia appears to be rather unique doesn't make it easier to predict! In my mind though, better slow creeping than a fast jolt every few years!

Hi Kyle,

Interesting article. I would think the movement of quake centers would not be unusual as you have a huge area of plate being subducted under the mountain with some areas moving faster or slower than others.

[Kyle Holgate]

Hi Kyle,

Interesting article. I would think the movement of quake centers would not be unusual as you have a huge area of plate being subducted under the mountain with some areas moving faster or slower than others.

The quakes near Mt. Hood are much shallower than the plate boundry between the Pacific and North American plates, which should be perhaps 60 miles down at Mt. Hood. There are known fault lines near the mountain - which is where most previous quakes appear, but these are not on them (to my knowledge). It is likely there is just another fault where these newer quakes are, or they could be related to Mt. Hood's 'plumbing' in some way.
Because of the volatile nature (pun intended) of volcanic eruptions the staff at the Cascade volcano observatory tend not to make any speculations public. The local news gets a hold of them and blows them out of all proportion and takes everything out of context. Due to that it's difficult to find out what they really think is going on as they won't make any statements until or unless they're very sure. And since the science of valcanology is still very much in its infancy, they're almost never sure enough.

[old_pop2000]

Well, Mt. Etna is at it again.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41064182/from/RSS/